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Miners’ ‘Capitulation’ Signals Bitcoin Price May Have Bottomed Out: CryptoQuant
According to CryptoQuant, blockchain data shows signs that the Bitcoin mining industry is “capitulating,” a likely precursor to Bitcoin hitting a local price bottom before reaching new highs.
CryptoQuant analyzed metrics for miners, who are responsible for securing the Bitcoin network in exchange for newly minted BTC. As outlined in the market intelligence platform’s Wednesday report, multiple signs of capitulation have emerged over the past month, during which Bitcoin’s price has fallen 13% from $68,791 to $59,603.
One such sign includes a significant drop in Bitcoin’s hash rate, the total computing power that backs Bitcoin. After hitting a record high of 623 exashashes per second (EH/s) on April 27, the hash rate has fallen 7.7% to 576 EH/s, its lowest level in four months.
“Historically, extreme hash rate drawdowns have been associated with price bottoms,” CryptoQuant wrote. In particular, the 7.7% drawdown is reminiscent of an equivalent hash rate drawdown in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price bottomed at $16,000 before rallying over 300% over the next 15 months.
This latest hash rate drop follows Bitcoin’s fourth cyclical “halving” event in April, which cut the number of coins paid out to miners in half. According to CryptoQuant’s Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability Indicator, this has left miners “mostly extremely underpaid” since April 20, forcing many to shut down mining machines that have now become unprofitable.
CrypotoQuant said that miners faced a 63% drop in daily revenue after the halving, when both Bitcoin block rewards and transaction fee revenues were much higher.
During this time, Bitcoin miners were seen moving coins from their on-chain wallets at a faster rate than usual, indicating that they may be selling their BTC reserves“Daily miner outflows reached their highest volume since May 21,” the company wrote.
Among the sales of Bitcoin miners, whales and national governmentsBitcoin’s price drop in June also hurt Bitcoin’s “hash price,” a metric of Bitcoin Miner Profitability per unit of computing power.
“Average mining revenue per hash (hash price) continues to hover near all-time lows,” CryptoQuant wrote. “Hashprice stands at $0.049 per EH/s, just above the all-time low hashprice of $0.045 reached on May 1st.”
By Ryan-Ozawa.