Will the spot ETF be a game changer?

Will the Ether ETF spot approval finally break Ethereum’s price stagnation and spark a meaningful rally? Insights and analysis.

Ethereum (ETH) price predictions are rife with speculation, fueled by the possibility of an Ethereum spot exchange. funds (ETF) will go live next month.

Amid the current volatility in the crypto market, ETH has suffered a cooling effect, falling over 4% in the past week and trading at around $3,500 as of June 17.

One-Month ETH Price Chart | Source: CoinMarketcap

This drop in Ethereum price reflects a broader trend where Bitcoin (BTC) and other altcoins have struggled to maintain bullish momentum, leading to recent retracements.

Interestingly, while BTC has declined by over 2% over the past 30 days, currently trading between $65,000 and $66,000, ETH has managed to gain over 12% over the past 30 days. same period.

ETH vs BTC 1-Month Price Chart | Source: CoinMarketCap

On May 23, the SEC approved eight 19b-4 filings to list Ether spot ETFs on various US exchanges. However, trading cannot begin until the required S-1 Registration Statement approvals are in place, which has given bullish momentum to the ETH price.

In a recent update, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas mentioned that Ether spot ETFs could potentially begin trading as soon as possible. early like July 2.

Balchunas shared on , and they were asked to resubmit them within a week.

Balchunas suggested that while anything is possible, this timeline seems plausible based on current information.

However, on June 13, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler provided a wider deadline, indicating that Ether spot ETFs could begin trading by the end of September, depending on how quickly issuers can respond to the SEC’s comments.

Amid these mixed reactions, what is happening with the ETH price and what does market sentiment suggest regarding Ethereum price predictions? Let’s find out.

Whale activity and TVL data

As the possibility of a Spot Ether ETF draws closer, whales are taking actions that could strongly influence current price action.

In a June 16 tweet, ali_charts reported that Ethereum whales purchased over 700,000 ETH over the past three weeks, totaling around $2.45 billion.

Another tweet from a crypto analyst noted that the number of Ethereum addresses holding more than 10,000 ETH has increased by more than 3% over the past four weeks.

To put this into perspective, data from Dune Analytics shows that the top 1,000 ETH holders control 38.93% of the total ETH supply. Among them, the top 100 holders alone own 21.34%, while the top 500 holders own 33.86%.

Amid this whale activity, Ethereum’s total value locked (TVL) remains strong, accounting for over 61% of TVL’s total crypto market share. Since June 17, the Ethereum TVL stands to $62.186 billion, more than double the $30 billion at the start of the year.

ETH TVL Data | Source: DeFi LIama

In the lead, the Lido, the liquid of ETH staking platform, which saw its TVL increase 14% over the past month, reaching $33.64 billion.

Close behind is ETH replenishment platform Eigenlayer, with a massive 25% increase in its TVL, now above $19 billion.

The implications of these whale movements and high TVL numbers are profound. If the Spot Ether ETF is approved, it could attract even more retail and institutional investment, driving up prices and TVL levels.

Meanwhile, the whales’ recent accumulation suggests they are positioning themselves for this potential surge, betting on the possibility that spot ETH ETFs will soon come online.

What do the experts think?

Michaël van de Poppe, a highly respected analyst, mentioned the potential launch of the Ethereum spot ETF as a major market event.

He notes that the approval of the 19b-4 files led to a substantial rise in ETH prices, with a single day rise of over 20%, pushing ETH to $3,800. However, this initial enthusiasm was tempered by a subsequent 10% price drop, as the market awaits approval of the S-1 filings.

Van de Poppe suggests that this period of uncertainty could be a classic “Sell the Rumor, Buy the News” scenario, with the ETF’s approval potentially signaling broader acceptance of Ethereum as a commodity, thus benefiting the the entire ecosystem.

In a similar vein, EmperorBTC provides a swing trader’s perspective, hinting at the bullish implications of the ETH ETF announcement for the entire crypto market.

He suggests that the ETF will provide a new use case for Ethereum, which could lead to a significant influx of capital not only into ETH but also other altcoins.

His view aligns with the idea that the recent price retracement was necessary to rid itself of impatient investors, paving the way for a strong accumulation phase and subsequent price surge, potentially mirroring the event Bitcoin Halving in 2020.

Another analyst drew parallels between the expected ETH ETF and previous Bitcoin ETF approvals.

The launch of Bitcoin ETFs initially led to a short-term price decline, largely due to the “news sell-off” phenomenon and the impact of Grayscale’s GBTC sale.

However, in the long term, BTC ETFs have been a net positive for Bitcoin prices. The analyst believes that while there could be a similar initial decline for ETH due to the market shock and the Grayscale ETHE product, the long-term outlook remains optimistic.

This is partly because the ETHE discount has already narrowed, reducing the potential for massive sell-offs once the ETFs go live.

ETH Price Prediction: Long-Term View

According to a crypto analyst, based on technical analysis, ETH is currently trading within a bull flag or parallel channel.

A break above the $4,000 resistance could trigger a strong upward move, potentially pushing prices towards the $6,000-7,000 range. Conversely, if ETH falls below the $3,650 support level, a decline towards $3,152 could occur.

When it comes to Ethereum price prediction based on algorithmic forecasting websites, there are varied perspectives on where ETH could go in the coming years.

According to Price prediction.net, Ethereum price prediction for 2024 suggests that ETH could reach around $4,947. On the other hand, Digital Coin Price is more optimistic, forecasting a higher price of $7,365 for the same year.

Looking to the middle of the decade, Ethereum price predictions for 2025 also show variations. Priceprediction.net predicts that ETH could reach $6,847, while Digitalcoinprice predicts a potentially higher figure of $8,971 by 2025.

Long-term Ethereum price predictions for 2030 diverge significantly. Priceprediction.net predicts a staggering $46,089, while Digitalcoinprice offers a more conservative estimate of $24,786 for 2030.

Algorithmic forecasts provide useful information but are inherently speculative and subject to various market factors. You should be aware of the risks and uncertainties involved.

Remember: never invest more than you can afford to lose. The crypto market is very volatile and prices can fluctuate significantly.

It’s essential to do your own research, stay informed, and make decisions based on your risk tolerance and investment goals.

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