Bitcoin
Will Fed rate cuts trigger a recovery?
In a surprising turn of events, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed unexpectedly low US inflation figures. Core inflation fell by 0.1 percentage points from 3.4% to 3.3% in June, marking its first decline in nearly four years. Analysts interpreted this as a bullish sign for Bitcoin. However, despite these promising numbers, the price of Bitcoin has yet to show any significant gains.
With a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could discourage investment in fixed income assets, investors may seek higher returns elsewhere.
Markus Thielen, analyst at 10x Research, foreseen a Bitcoin rally leading up to the US inflation announcement, expecting a decline in inflation. Although Bitcoin briefly surged after the CPI announcement, it was quickly sold off, even with the high probability of a rate cut in September.
Let’s analyze, okay?
Decoding the high theory
The latest report highlights a crucial aspect of financial markets: success often involves going against the grain and being right. The post-CPI rally was short-lived, as the market had already anticipated lower inflation. Identifying market rebounds is essential—one scenario can lead to substantial gains, while another can result in significant losses.
What’s next for Bitcoin?
Following recent inflation data, the probability of a September rate cut has increased to 87%, and the probability of two or more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by November has surpassed 50%. Coupled with a nearly 1% drop in the US dollar index, these factors suggest that Bitcoin could see another rally.
Investment opportunities to discover
Analysts believe that now is an opportune time to invest in Bitcoin, given the supporting factors. While selling pressure from the German government is easing, Bitcoin appears technically oversold. Anticipated liquidity support from ETFs buying the dip and potential rate cuts from the Fed add to the positive sentiment.
However, potential selling pressure from Grayscale and upcoming Mt. Gox payments by July 24 could impact the market.
FTX’s potential $16 billion in creditor payments, with $3.2 billion to $5 billion possibly reinvested in crypto assets, adds further complexity to the market. Despite these challenges, the combination of reduced selling pressure, ETF activity, and expected Fed rate cuts could drive Bitcoin’s price higher in anticipation of the rate cut.
Bitcoin Price Fights
Amidst a bullish market, Bitcoin appears to be struggling. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.30 and priced at $57,412, Bitcoin recently faced resistance at $59,500 and dropped 3.87%. It has now entered a triangle formation, signaling bear market control. Concerns over a $1.1 trillion market cap drop are weighing on sentiment. Large BTC holders are buying more, while retail investors are selling.
After the German government’s BTC sales and Mt. Gox refunds, the market could see a recovery in 1-2 months, potentially by Q3.
Technical indicators scream “bearish,” but analysts are bullish. Who do you trust? Share your opinion with your analysis!
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
Fuente
Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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