Ethereum
Will Ethereum ETFs launch in July? The expert gives his opinion!
- Final approval of ETH ETF S-1s could happen in 2-3 months per analyst.
- If so, will Grayscale ETH Trust bleed like GBTC?
After the green light for the spot Ethereum [ETH] For ETF 19b-4 filings, market observers have vaguely estimated the timeline for final approval of S-1s (registration statements) by the SEC.
Right now, one political and market observer, Nate Geracci of ETF Store, predicts that approval of S-1s could happen in 2-3 months.
“When will the SEC approve spot eth ETF registration statements?” *No one* knows for sure, but I expect it to be within the next few weeks. 2-3 months maximum. »
Geraci accurately predicted that the SEC would approve the 19b-4s (exchange requests) and then slow down the S-1s when most of the market expected a May 23 rejection from the SEC.
Thus, its projection cannot simply be dismissed or neglected.
The analyst added that “a lot of work has already been done following BTC spot ETFs and eth futures ETFs.”
Eric Balchunas, analyst at Bloomberg ETF echoes Geraci and chose July as the likely date for approval.
“July 4th looks like a good over/under”
Ethereum ETG: Will Grayscale bleed again?
If confirmed, market watchers will focus on Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE) and determine whether it will follow GBTC’s outflow trend post-spot. Bitcoin [BTC] ETF approval in January.
In January alone, GBTC saw $6.5 billion in outflows, according to a recent Kaiko Insights report.
If the trend continues in Grayscale’s ETHE as more frustrated investors buy back their shares, more capital outflows are likely.
Kaiko estimates that ETHE, currently with $11 billion in assets under management (AUM), could see outflows reach $110 million on a daily average if the trend mirrors GBTC. Part of the report read,
“If we saw a similar scale of ETHE outflows, that would equate to $110 million in average daily outflows or 30% of the average daily ETH volume on Coinbase.”
However, crypto analyst James Van Straten previously downplayed the possibility of massive ETHE outflows and declared that Grayscale’s low-cost ($ETH) Mini Trust could prevent the bleeding.
“I am uncertain in terms of outflows if $ETHE experiences similar outflows to $GBTC. The $ETH mini-trust can be launched at the same time with lower fees, and investors don’t have to do anything, which was not available for $GBTC.
At the same time, ETH recorded a bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart. This meant that the RSI (Relative Strength Index) was making lower highs while the price was making higher highs.
Typically, such a divergence leads to a drop in prices.
Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView
ETH could return to the moving average (50-day EMA, blue), around $3.68K, or the previous residence with support near $3.6K (marked in cyan) before rebounding towards the area resistance and block daily bearish orders at $4,000. (marked in red).