Bitcoin
When will $70,000 be recovered?
Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Has Hit Rock Bottom: When Will $70,000 Be Recovered?
BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has a long history in the cryptocurrency industry. Hayes graduated from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. He began working as an equity derivatives trader in 2008. In 2014, he founded BitMEX, the leading cryptocurrency derivatives platform.
Hayes posted on the BitMEX blog to discuss the current state of Bitcoin and where he sees the price going in the future. In particular, he focuses on the Federal Reserve and Republic First Bank.
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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) recently announced that it would reduce the rate of quantitative tightening (QT) from $95 billion per month to $60 million per month. This means they will sell fewer financial instruments on the open market every month. By doing so, they can reduce interest rates and provide some stimulus to the economy.
Hayes goes on to note that in previous months, the FOMC exceeded the $95 billion QT quota, so there is potential for them to exceed the $60 billion quota. According to Hayes, this is positive for the liquidity of the US dollar and, in turn, for Bitcoin.
Another potential positive for Bitcoin is the collapse of First Republic Bank. Fulton Bank purchased it in late April 2024 and the FDIC approved it as “the least costly resolution for the DIF.” Essentially, the acquisition was the result that allowed the FDIC to spend the least amount of money on deposit insurance.
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However, as Hayes points out, the FDIC covered more deposits than required by law. The FDIC only insures deposits up to $250,000. However, with the First Republic, the FDIC gave Fulton Bank the money it needed to fully guarantee all deposit accounts. According to Hayes, allowing any deposits to be uninsured “is politically distasteful in an election year, especially if the powers that be have continually assured the public that the banking system is sound.” Thus, the measure essentially set a precedent for fully guaranteeing deposits.
If more banks failed, this precedent would inevitably lead to more money printing, as the FDIC would have to borrow from the Fed to satisfy all the deposits. For some, this may be seen as reckless, placing more value on Bitcoin’s consistent and predictable supply.
The story continues
To close the post, Hayes summarizes his position in three points:
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Bitcoin hit a low of $58,600.
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Bitcoin will remain in the range between US$60,000 and US$70,000 until August
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The Fed and FDIC are stealthily printing money, giving Bitcoin more validity
So, with some evidence from macroeconomic policy and recent developments in the banking sphere, Hayes believes there is room for Bitcoin to rise in the coming months as the effects of recent moves begin to be felt.
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This article Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Has Hit Rock Bottom: When Will $70,000 Be Recovered? originally appeared in Benzinga.com
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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