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Prediction: Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2025

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Prediction: Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in 2025

The world’s main cryptocurrency still has a lot of potential for appreciation.

Bitcoinin (Bitcoin 0.43%) the price has more than doubled to about $63,000 in the last 12 months. This rally was primarily driven by the approval of the first spot-priced Bitcoin ETFs in January, the Bitcoin halving in April, and market expectations of lower interest rates.

These catalysts have led some investors to make extremely optimistic predictions regarding the future of Bitcoin. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest believes its price could reach $3.8 million by 2030, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya sees a price of $1 million by 2040-2042, and Fidelity says its price could reach a staggering $1 billion by 2028-2030.

Image source: Getty Images.

It’s impossible to say whether Bitcoin will come close to these estimates, so most investors should focus on its realistic upside potential rather than these lofty price targets. I think Bitcoin has a viable path to reaching $100,000 by the end of 2025, which still makes it a good bet for investors who can tolerate short-term volatility.

Bitcoin would only need to replicate its average annual gains

From January 1, 2014 to January 1, 2024, the price of Bitcoin rose from $771.40 to $43,835.62. This represented a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% over 10 years. A 50% gain this year would push Bitcoin’s price to $65,800 by January 1, 2025, while another 50% gain would take its price to $98,700 by January 1, 2026. So if Bitcoin just replicates its average annual growth rate over the past decade, its price could approach US$100,000 by the end of 2025.

Another factor is Bitcoin’s performance after each halving, which reduces the rewards for mining the cryptocurrency every four years. Let’s look at the price of Bitcoin after each of the three halvings that occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2020.

Halving date

Price at the time of halving

After the maximum price of the year

2012

$13

$1,152

2016

$664

$17,760

2020

$9,734

$67,549

Data source: Bitpay.

Bitcoin’s post-halving returns are declining, but this trajectory suggests that its price could still rise significantly after the last halving, which occurred on April 19, 2024. Bitcoin’s price closed at $63,844 that day. It is still hovering around that level at the time of this writing, but historical data suggests it could easily climb above $100,000 by 2025.

Institutional Buying Could Turn the Tide

Bitcoin bulls believe institutional purchases will drive its price to new all-time highs. According to a recent EY-Parthenon survey, 76% of institutional investors still allocated less than 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin and other digital assets.

Cathie Wood has repeatedly stated that if institutional investors just added “a little more than 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin,” its price would soar into the millions. Wood believes that recent Bitcoin approvals Spot Price ETFs – which make it easier for institutional investors to buy cryptocurrency – will fuel this trend.

The Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates anytime soon, but it also said it wouldn’t raise rates in the near future. This stability could lead more institutional investors to bet on Bitcoin and more speculative investments this year.

However, more companies could accept Bitcoin as a form of payment, while more inflation-ravaged countries could follow El Salvador’s example and adopt it as their national currency. This trend would reinforce its reputation as a safe-haven asset and make it more comparable to gold, silver and other precious metals. The US Securities and Exchange Commission supports this view: it is repeatedly said that Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that is a commodity rather than a security.

But investors should prepare for some volatile swings

I believe Bitcoin price has a clear path to reaching $100,000 by the end of 2025, but will likely endure some volatile swings before reaching that goal. Therefore, investors should evaluate short-term risks rather than blindly following the bulls.

Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions and recommends Bitcoin. The motley fool has a disclosure policy.

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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