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Prediction: Bitcoin will reach $1 million due to this little-known phenomenon
Action will drive more action.
Day to day, Bitcoin‘S (Bitcoin -0.17%) unique characteristics, which make it different from any other asset in the world, are becoming increasingly recognized and understood by investors. The recent approval of Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will amplify this understanding, as these ETFs simplify the process for investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin.
While the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETF has been widely celebrated as a stamp of unofficial legitimacy, signaling that Bitcoin is here to stay, there is another crucial dimension to consider. Once this is fully understood, it will become apparent that Bitcoin has the potential to reach the coveted $1 million price point.
Understand the current landscape
The approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs revolutionizes how the average investor, or retail investor, can add Bitcoin exposure to their portfolios. Simply by purchasing shares of one of these ETFs through their intermediationInvestors can now bypass the complexities of navigating cryptocurrency exchanges and managing digital wallets.
This development has the potential to significantly increase demand for Bitcoin’s limited and dwindling supply. However, as transformative as this increased access is for retail investors, it will pale in comparison to the wave of demand anticipated by financial markets. institutional investors enter the market.
Before diving into the numbers, it is essential to understand who institutional investors are. For a long time I heard Bitcoin enthusiasts say that institutions were coming, but I never fully understood what that meant. Institutional investors are organizations that invest money on behalf of their clients. These include, among others, pension funds, pension plans, sovereign wealth funds and hedge funds. Essentially, they manage and invest large sums of money.
Prior to the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutions were prohibited or hesitant to enter the Bitcoin market due to the complexities associated with owning digital assets. However, with the advent of these ETFs, institutions can now easily incorporate Bitcoin into their large portfolios, opening the door for a significant influx of institutional capital into the Bitcoin market.
Time to do some numbers
But what impact will these institutions have? As of May 15, approximately 700 professional investment firms are estimated to own approximately $5 billion of these Bitcoin spot ETFs. Leading the way is Millennium Management, an investment company that manages over $64 billion, of which $1.8 billion is tied to Bitcoin ETFs, approximately 3% of its total portfolio. But the list goes on and includes the likes of Morgan Stanley (the sixth largest bank in the United States), Bracebridge Capital (a hedge fund that manages investments for Yale and Princeton), and even the State of Wisconsin Investment Board.
However, as it stands, retail investors are the primary owners of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Reports suggest that around 10% of all ETF-related assets come from institutions. But this number is growing and will continue to do so.
The influx of institutions into the Bitcoin market will likely be gradual, as they typically engage extensively due diligence before making assignments. Unlike retail investors, who can quickly enter the market by purchasing shares of an ETF, institutions often take time to research Bitcoin’s impact on their portfolios before making small allocations.
However, after conducting their research, I think they will probably all come to the same conclusion: Bitcoin’s inherent characteristics make it a necessity in wallets. Eventually, widespread adoption among institutional investors will occur, leading to an influx of tsunamis of capital.
There’s no telling exactly how much money, but based on recent studies that argue that a 5% allocation is the ideal amount of exposure, we can begin to estimate the potential impact of institutional investors. With 5% of the $129 trillion in assets under management, Bitcoin’s market capitalization could rise to over $7 trillion and its price above $400,000.
However, some analysts argue that a 5% allocation may be too conservative. In particular, a recent study by ARK Invest suggests that the ideal exposure level should be closer to 19%. If this were to happen, the price of Bitcoin could rise further $1.3 million.
The little-known theory that comes into play
What we are witnessing marks the beginning of a fascinating phenomenon: game theory. In essence, game theory suggests that rational actors, in this case institutional investors, will strategically act in their own best interests based on the actions of others.
As institutions watch their peers reap the benefits of Bitcoin investing, they will inevitably face pressure to join the fray or risk being left behind in the race for returns. This dynamic, driven by the desire to outperform competitors and secure maximum returns, will likely fuel a surge in Bitcoin adoption and investment like never before seen.
While retail investors have played a significant role in Bitcoin’s path thus far and will remain an important group, the entry of institutions represents a paradigm shift. The sheer size and resources at their disposal will not only amplify the dynamics of the Bitcoin market, but will also inject a new level of competition and urgency. As institutions compete for supremacy and seek to exploit Bitcoin’s potential, the game is set to evolve in unanticipated ways and take Bitcoin to new heights.
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How Ether Spot ETF Approval Could Impact Crypto Prices: CNBC Crypto World
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CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and gives viewers a glimpse of what’s to come with high-profile interviews, explainers and unique stories from the ever-changing cryptocurrency industry. On today’s show, Ledn Chief Investment Officer John Glover weighs in on what’s driving cryptocurrency prices right now and how the potential approval of spot ether ETFs could impact markets.
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Miners’ ‘Capitulation’ Signals Bitcoin Price May Have Bottomed Out: CryptoQuant
According to CryptoQuant, blockchain data shows signs that the Bitcoin mining industry is “capitulating,” a likely precursor to Bitcoin hitting a local price bottom before reaching new highs.
CryptoQuant analyzed metrics for miners, who are responsible for securing the Bitcoin network in exchange for newly minted BTC. As outlined in the market intelligence platform’s Wednesday report, multiple signs of capitulation have emerged over the past month, during which Bitcoin’s price has fallen 13% from $68,791 to $59,603.
One such sign includes a significant drop in Bitcoin’s hash rate, the total computing power that backs Bitcoin. After hitting a record high of 623 exashashes per second (EH/s) on April 27, the hash rate has fallen 7.7% to 576 EH/s, its lowest level in four months.
“Historically, extreme hash rate drawdowns have been associated with price bottoms,” CryptoQuant wrote. In particular, the 7.7% drawdown is reminiscent of an equivalent hash rate drawdown in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price bottomed at $16,000 before rallying over 300% over the next 15 months.
This latest hash rate drop follows Bitcoin’s fourth cyclical “halving” event in April, which cut the number of coins paid out to miners in half. According to CryptoQuant’s Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability Indicator, this has left miners “mostly extremely underpaid” since April 20, forcing many to shut down mining machines that have now become unprofitable.
CrypotoQuant said that miners faced a 63% drop in daily revenue after the halving, when both Bitcoin block rewards and transaction fee revenues were much higher.
During this time, Bitcoin miners were seen moving coins from their on-chain wallets at a faster rate than usual, indicating that they may be selling their BTC reserves“Daily miner outflows reached their highest volume since May 21,” the company wrote.
Among the sales of Bitcoin miners, whales and national governmentsBitcoin’s price drop in June also hurt Bitcoin’s “hash price,” a metric of Bitcoin Miner Profitability per unit of computing power.
“Average mining revenue per hash (hash price) continues to hover near all-time lows,” CryptoQuant wrote. “Hashprice stands at $0.049 per EH/s, just above the all-time low hashprice of $0.045 reached on May 1st.”
By Ryan-Ozawa.
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US Congressman French Hill Doubles Down on Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance
US lawmaker French Hill has noted that Donald Trump will take a more pro-crypto approach than the current administration. The run-up to the presidential election has seen cryptocurrencies become an issue with lawmakers making huge statements ahead of the polls. Donald Trump has also been reaching out to the industry, making a pro-crypto case.
French Hill Backs Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance
Republican Congressman French Hill has explained the type of cryptocurrency regulatory framework he believes Donald Trump could adopt in the country. In a recent interview with CNBC, French Hill said that the recently passed FIT21 bill is the type of regulatory framework the Trump administration will adopt in the sector.
#FIT21 passed the House with 71 Democratic votes, it’s exactly the kind of digital asset regulatory framework former President Trump would support if re-elected.
See more on @SquawkCNBC🔽 photo.twitter.com/ceTmU4LApU
— French Hill (@RepFrenchHill) July 3, 2024
THE FIT21 Bill It is intended to protect investors and consumers in the market by establishing clear rules and powers for the various regulators in the sector. According to Hill, Trump will adopt it because it directs the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on the specific regulatory framework needed in the market.
“… for people who are innovating and starting a crypto token, a related business, custody of those assets, how to ensure consumer protection, so I think that framework is the right approach and that’s what I’m going to recommend to the President to pass, which is that we have not passed it between now and the end of this Congress.”
He also called Trump an innovative and pro-growth president in financial matters.
Cryptocurrency is going mainstream
This election cycle saw the cryptocurrency industry taking a place in mainstream issues following broader adoption across demographics. From candidates moving toward enthusiasts to recent pro-Congress legislation, cryptocurrencies have become a rallying point for officials. The U.S. regulatory landscape has been criticized for stifling growth due to frequent SEC LawsuitsThis has led executives to push for pro-cryptocurrency laws and raise money for pro-industry candidates.
Read also: Federal Reserve Predicts “AI Will Be Deflationary” to Stimulate Economy
David is a financial news contributor with 4 years of experience in Blockchain and cryptocurrency. He is interested in learning about emerging technologies and has an eye for breaking news. Keeping up to date with trends, David has written in several niches including regulation, partnerships, cryptocurrency, stocks, NFTs, etc. Away from the financial markets, David enjoys cycling and horseback riding.
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US Court Orders Sam Ikkurty to Pay $84 Million for Cryptocurrency Ponzi Scheme
A federal court has ordered Jafia LLC and its owner, Sam Ikkurty, to pay nearly $84 million to cryptocurrency investors after ruling that the company was operating a Ponzi scheme.
The ruling, issued by Judge Mary Rowland in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, follows a lawsuit filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 after the fund collapsed.
Judge Rowland found that Ikkurty, based in Portland, Oregon, did numerous false claims on his company’s hedge funds.
These included misleading statements about his trading experience and the promise of high and stable profits. Instead, Ikkurty used funds from new investors to pay off previous investors, a hallmark of a Ponzi scheme.
The Ponzi Scheme
The court found that Ikkurty misappropriated investment funds for personal use without the knowledge of the investors. These funds were used for personal use and were reported as Fraudulent Investmentscausing significant financial losses to customers.
This non-transparent operation violated Transparency Commission regulations, which led to the imposition of a hefty fine to compensate defrauded investors and restore some public confidence in the financial system.
Judge Rowland emphasized that fraudulent activity such as this violates the law and undermines the integrity of modern financial markets. The $84 million award seeks to address the financial harm inflicted on investors and reinforce the importance of legal compliance in cryptocurrency trading.
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