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Historical cycle data suggests Bitcoin is out of the danger zone: is a return to $73,000 imminent? — TradingView News
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Bitcoin has officially left the post-halving “danger zone,” where there is a possibility of a drop below its low range, and is now headed for reaccumulation, according to a popular crypto strategist citing historical data.
The price of Bitcoin has recently undergone a retracement and is currently hovering around $69,000, despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) eventual approval of several spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). With Bitcoin escaping the danger zone, will the major cryptocurrency resume its upward movement soon or is a deeper correction still likely?
Bitcoin Sideways Trading Will Continue for Many More Weeks: Analyst
On May 24, cryptocurrency trader and analyst Rekt Capital posted an update on .
The post-halving danger zone has occurred in previous market cycles when the asset corrects after the block subsidy halves, according to Rekt Capital. Once past the danger zone, Bitcoin historically enters a reaccumulation phase when it moves sideways within a narrow range. This suggests that further pullbacks may still be possible during the sideways decline period that often follows the halving.
“Since Bitcoin’s post-halving ‘danger zone’ ended, Bitcoin has broken out to $71,500. However, ~$71,500 is where the high resistance of the macro reaccumulation range lies and it is from here that Bitcoin is rejected,” Rekt Capital wrote. “The consolidation continues and history suggests it will continue for several more weeks between $60,000 and $70,000.”
Rekt Capital also noted that based on historical behavior, Bitcoin is likely to remain capped below $70,000 until September.
“Historically, Bitcoin has always moved away from the high range on the first breakout attempt after the halving. Furthermore, history suggests that this reaccumulation is expected to last much longer. Bitcoin tends to break out of these reaccumulation ranges only up to 160 days after the halving. This would result in Bitcoin breaking out of the reaccumulation range only in September 2024.”
Bitcoin price in brief
In this cycle, Bitcoin has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high of $73,737 in mid-March to around $56,780 on May 1, marking the potential bottom of the post-halving danger zone.
On May 21, Bitcoin’s price briefly surpassed the psychologically important mark of $70,000; however, it quickly dropped to around $67,000. BTC has now recovered and is back at $69,176 at the time of writing, reinforcing the return to the reaccumulation zone analysis.
Even though the flagship cryptocurrency appears stuck in a sideways price movement, industry experts remain extremely bullish. For example, cryptocurrency market veteran Tom Lee said his base case for Bitcoin by the end of the year is $150,000.