Bitcoin
Hedge Funds Heavily Shorting BTC, Will This Overcome GameStop Saga?
On Friday, Bitcoin suffered a notable drop, dropping as low as $68,450 before a modest recovery to just over $69,000. This movement in Bitcoin’s price coincided with a significant change in market sentiment. The change was reflected in the latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report from Commodities and Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Hedge funds are heavily shorting Bitcoin
The report indicated that hedge funds are heavily shorting Bitcoin, placing substantial bets against the older cryptocurrency. Furthermore, this increase in short positions reflects a bearish outlook among institutional investors. This suggests that many expect the price of Bitcoin to fall.
Financial media outlet Zerohedge highlighted this trend on X. They pointed out a “huge jump and new record in Bitcoin hedge fund net short positions” on Friday. Previously, Zerohedge accurately predicted that the latest COT update would reveal a substantial increase in short positions against Bitcoin.
Zerohedge’s comment that “when this happens, it will make Volkswagen/GME look like amateur hour” alludes to the potential for a dramatic market reversal. In the world of trading, a high number of short positions can lead to a situation where a sudden price increase forces short sellers to cover their positions through buybacks.
This movement drove prices even higher – a phenomenon known as a short squeeze. The comparison with Volkswagen and GameStop highlights the potential for significant market disruption. In 2008, Volkswagen briefly became the world’s most valuable company due to a crisis that caught many investors off guard.
Similarly, GameStop’s share price rose in early 2021 as retail investors coordinated a buying spree, leading to massive losses for those holding short positions. For Bitcoin, analysts expect the implications of this hedge fund activity to be greater than those of GameStop or any other short squeeze stock.
While short positions reflect a pessimistic view of Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, the volatile nature of cryptocurrency markets means that rapid and unexpected price movements can occur. If the price of Bitcoin rose sharply, those with short positions would incur substantial losses. This would potentially lead to a cascade of buying as they scramble to cover their short positions.
Read too: Bitcoin Holders With 964K BTC Near Breakeven, Will BTC Price Fall to $67K?
What’s Next for BTC Price?
Hedge funds shorting Bitcoin expect a drop of $18,175 in the current price of BTC. However, technical indicators and analyst insights suggest an optimistic outlook in both the short and long term. This indicates that Bitcoin could soon reach a new peak and, if the prediction comes true, these short positions will be liquidated, leading to an unprecedented rally.
However, Friday’s price action saw Bitcoin briefly fall below $69,000, triggering liquidations in long positions rather than short ones. However, the market remains nervous, aware that a sudden increase in Bitcoin’s value could trigger a dramatic squeeze in sales. This would not only increase prices, but could also mirror or even surpass market dynamics seen in previous financial episodes such as Volkswagen and GameStop.
At the time of writing, the BTC Price fell 0.06% to $69,382.34 on Sunday, June 9. Meanwhile, the crypto giant sported a phenomenal market valuation of $1.36 trillion. Additionally, Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume plummeted 62.23% to $12.95 billion.
Read too: Top 10 Cryptocurrencies That Outperformed Bitcoin This Year
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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