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Coinbase Trading Revenue Under Pressure as Cryptocurrencies Come of Age
(Bloomberg) — It’s been a milestone year for digital assets, but the shift to the mainstream is making price swings less violent, diminishing a key attraction for many investors and poised to shake up the growth of the main source of revenue for investors. exchanges like Coinbase Global Inc.
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While first-quarter revenues and profits came in above forecasts, consumer trading volume at the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange was $56 billion, compared to a peak of $177 billion in the fourth quarter of 2021 at culmination of the previous cryptocurrency bull run. Bitcoin trading volume, which fuels Coinbase’s trading fee revenue, has remained subdued since the world’s largest cryptocurrency hit all-time highs in March following the introduction of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds.
“Volatility looks much more ripe in this cycle than it did in 2021,” Alesia Haas, chief financial officer at Coinbase, said at JPMorgan’s annual global technology, media and communications conference last week. “Bitcoin volatility, Ethereum volatility is starting to show up, what I call, on the grid.”
According to researcher CCData, average volatility for digital assets has fallen to 57% this year, compared to around 79% in 2021. Higher volatility tends to attract more speculative traders.
At the May investor conference, Coinbase executives mentioned words like “maturity” and “maturation” seven times, especially when talking about the cryptocurrency market.
What prompts talk of market maturation is the fact that, for Coinbase and other exchanges, revenue from trading fees this year is unlikely to match 2021’s bull run.
Other exchanges also expect less volatility this year, partly as a result of the creation of the Bitcoin spot ETF which has led to more orderly inflows and less chaos. Furthermore, prices of tokens, including Bitcoin, are already high, meaning they simply may not be able to rise as quickly.
“Today the market is more mature and is less likely to experience violent swings,” said Bobby Zagotta, CEO of Bitstamp USA. “It will still be volatile, and there will still be upward momentum in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices, but I don’t think it will be as explosive up and down as previous cycles.”
Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at Kraken, echoed this sentiment. “I don’t think we’re going to have a lot of repetition of what we’ve seen in previous markets in terms of the magnitude of growth,” he said in an interview.
The story continues
The future of Coinbase, however, is far from bleak. Net profit, for example, is expected to rise about 20 times this year compared to 2023, data compiled by Bloomberg shows. But its absolute revenues and net income are still expected to be below its 2021 peak.
The company’s prospects will depend on the duration of the current bull market. If it extends to 2025, John Todaro, an analyst at Needham & Co., expects Coinbase to generate more revenue. Coinbase’s ability to maintain spot market share will also be key as its share fell to 4.18% in May, from 6.5% at the start of 2023, according to CCData.
However, Coinbase is now much more diversified and less dependent on trading fees than in 2021. The company already made about a third of its sales in the first quarter from other sources, such as revenue share on the stablecoin USDC. It is also earning revenue from its Base blockchain, which debuted last year. This could be “a $300 million annual revenue opportunity,” Todaro said.
And Coinbase is already the custodian of most spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US. It is also listed as the custodian of five spot Ether ETFs that are in the process of being cleared by US regulators. Ether ETFs are not expected to be a significant revenue driver in the near term. But Owen Lau, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co., predicts they will boost Coinbase’s stature in the industry.
Some, like Lau, even argue that lower volatility makes Coinbase stock more attractive. The stock is up about 40% this year, although it is more than 30% below the all-time high it reached at the end of 2021.
Market maturity will benefit Coinbase in the long term, “because Coinbase is diversifying away from just trading,” Lau said. “Coinbase revenue could become even more predictable. This means they could earn a higher earnings multiple.”
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How Ether Spot ETF Approval Could Impact Crypto Prices: CNBC Crypto World
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CNBC Crypto World features the latest news and daily trading updates from the digital currency markets and gives viewers a glimpse of what’s to come with high-profile interviews, explainers and unique stories from the ever-changing cryptocurrency industry. On today’s show, Ledn Chief Investment Officer John Glover weighs in on what’s driving cryptocurrency prices right now and how the potential approval of spot ether ETFs could impact markets.
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Miners’ ‘Capitulation’ Signals Bitcoin Price May Have Bottomed Out: CryptoQuant
According to CryptoQuant, blockchain data shows signs that the Bitcoin mining industry is “capitulating,” a likely precursor to Bitcoin hitting a local price bottom before reaching new highs.
CryptoQuant analyzed metrics for miners, who are responsible for securing the Bitcoin network in exchange for newly minted BTC. As outlined in the market intelligence platform’s Wednesday report, multiple signs of capitulation have emerged over the past month, during which Bitcoin’s price has fallen 13% from $68,791 to $59,603.
One such sign includes a significant drop in Bitcoin’s hash rate, the total computing power that backs Bitcoin. After hitting a record high of 623 exashashes per second (EH/s) on April 27, the hash rate has fallen 7.7% to 576 EH/s, its lowest level in four months.
“Historically, extreme hash rate drawdowns have been associated with price bottoms,” CryptoQuant wrote. In particular, the 7.7% drawdown is reminiscent of an equivalent hash rate drawdown in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price bottomed at $16,000 before rallying over 300% over the next 15 months.
This latest hash rate drop follows Bitcoin’s fourth cyclical “halving” event in April, which cut the number of coins paid out to miners in half. According to CryptoQuant’s Miner Profit/Loss Sustainability Indicator, this has left miners “mostly extremely underpaid” since April 20, forcing many to shut down mining machines that have now become unprofitable.
CrypotoQuant said that miners faced a 63% drop in daily revenue after the halving, when both Bitcoin block rewards and transaction fee revenues were much higher.
During this time, Bitcoin miners were seen moving coins from their on-chain wallets at a faster rate than usual, indicating that they may be selling their BTC reserves“Daily miner outflows reached their highest volume since May 21,” the company wrote.
Among the sales of Bitcoin miners, whales and national governmentsBitcoin’s price drop in June also hurt Bitcoin’s “hash price,” a metric of Bitcoin Miner Profitability per unit of computing power.
“Average mining revenue per hash (hash price) continues to hover near all-time lows,” CryptoQuant wrote. “Hashprice stands at $0.049 per EH/s, just above the all-time low hashprice of $0.045 reached on May 1st.”
By Ryan-Ozawa.
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US Congressman French Hill Doubles Down on Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance
US lawmaker French Hill has noted that Donald Trump will take a more pro-crypto approach than the current administration. The run-up to the presidential election has seen cryptocurrencies become an issue with lawmakers making huge statements ahead of the polls. Donald Trump has also been reaching out to the industry, making a pro-crypto case.
French Hill Backs Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance
Republican Congressman French Hill has explained the type of cryptocurrency regulatory framework he believes Donald Trump could adopt in the country. In a recent interview with CNBC, French Hill said that the recently passed FIT21 bill is the type of regulatory framework the Trump administration will adopt in the sector.
#FIT21 passed the House with 71 Democratic votes, it’s exactly the kind of digital asset regulatory framework former President Trump would support if re-elected.
See more on @SquawkCNBC🔽 photo.twitter.com/ceTmU4LApU
— French Hill (@RepFrenchHill) July 3, 2024
THE FIT21 Bill It is intended to protect investors and consumers in the market by establishing clear rules and powers for the various regulators in the sector. According to Hill, Trump will adopt it because it directs the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on the specific regulatory framework needed in the market.
“… for people who are innovating and starting a crypto token, a related business, custody of those assets, how to ensure consumer protection, so I think that framework is the right approach and that’s what I’m going to recommend to the President to pass, which is that we have not passed it between now and the end of this Congress.”
He also called Trump an innovative and pro-growth president in financial matters.
Cryptocurrency is going mainstream
This election cycle saw the cryptocurrency industry taking a place in mainstream issues following broader adoption across demographics. From candidates moving toward enthusiasts to recent pro-Congress legislation, cryptocurrencies have become a rallying point for officials. The U.S. regulatory landscape has been criticized for stifling growth due to frequent SEC LawsuitsThis has led executives to push for pro-cryptocurrency laws and raise money for pro-industry candidates.
Read also: Federal Reserve Predicts “AI Will Be Deflationary” to Stimulate Economy
David is a financial news contributor with 4 years of experience in Blockchain and cryptocurrency. He is interested in learning about emerging technologies and has an eye for breaking news. Keeping up to date with trends, David has written in several niches including regulation, partnerships, cryptocurrency, stocks, NFTs, etc. Away from the financial markets, David enjoys cycling and horseback riding.
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US Court Orders Sam Ikkurty to Pay $84 Million for Cryptocurrency Ponzi Scheme
A federal court has ordered Jafia LLC and its owner, Sam Ikkurty, to pay nearly $84 million to cryptocurrency investors after ruling that the company was operating a Ponzi scheme.
The ruling, issued by Judge Mary Rowland in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, follows a lawsuit filed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022 after the fund collapsed.
Judge Rowland found that Ikkurty, based in Portland, Oregon, did numerous false claims on his company’s hedge funds.
These included misleading statements about his trading experience and the promise of high and stable profits. Instead, Ikkurty used funds from new investors to pay off previous investors, a hallmark of a Ponzi scheme.
The Ponzi Scheme
The court found that Ikkurty misappropriated investment funds for personal use without the knowledge of the investors. These funds were used for personal use and were reported as Fraudulent Investmentscausing significant financial losses to customers.
This non-transparent operation violated Transparency Commission regulations, which led to the imposition of a hefty fine to compensate defrauded investors and restore some public confidence in the financial system.
Judge Rowland emphasized that fraudulent activity such as this violates the law and undermines the integrity of modern financial markets. The $84 million award seeks to address the financial harm inflicted on investors and reinforce the importance of legal compliance in cryptocurrency trading.
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