Changing market leadership, bitcoin in trouble: market conclusions

Yahoo Finance Jared Blikre joins Asking for a Trend to break down his key takeaways from the trading day.

Blikre explains that stock market leadership is constantly changing. While tech and megacaps led, energy rose as crude oil hovered above $80 a barrel. Financial and basic necessities stocks are also on the rise, upsetting the market rankings.

Blikre also points out that July is historically a good month for the Nasdaq (^IXIC). The first 10 days of the month usually see the index’s best performance, and this July could be no different.

Finally, bitcoin (BTC-USD) is located in front of the cliff of Mt. Gox. The former cryptocurrency exchange is set to distribute 140,000 as part of its bankruptcy settlement.

For more expert insights and the latest market action, click Here to watch the full episode of Asking for a Trend.

This post was written by Melanie Riehl

Video transcription

The NASDAQ S and P 500 staff slipped three days today as NVIDIA stock rallies.

Join me now with others on the train of the day.

What should be taken away is that Yahoo finances its own Jared Bli Jared.

Thanks, Josh.

Take away the number one leadership of the stock market.

It’s constantly changing right now.

We have seen the NASDAQ and the Dow trade across the board.

Uh, but in the last few days we have seen a change in trend, which today has reversed.

So let me break it all down here.

Here’s the industry action for what we saw today.

Technology and communications services that are meta, alphabet and XL C. Those were number one, this is the mega cap trade that is doing very well.

We’ve known this for the last couple of years, but in the last seven days or so we’ve seen other sectors really rise to the forefront.

And here, over the course of seven days, we see energy, crude oil, above $80 a barrel.

There’s XL C in the area again.

So we’re still in the mix, but then we have the financials and the consumer staples.

So a different mix at the top.

And then here we have real estate, which is down 1.8%, but didn’t get much out of it.

Uh, but all in all it’s kind of a leadership change and we can see that with software now, software is also going under the hood, you see the other sectors and sub-sectors as well.

Jared.

Yes.

And I think the big takeaway for software is the software.

You know, people think of technology as a monolith, but you have software and chip stocks, you have other things too, but the software is not doing well.

But I want to show you this graph right here.

Um, this is an intraday chart that looks surprisingly similar to the five-year chart, it’s just a coincidence, but right now we have software that is forming a cup and a handle.

The story continues

This is a handle that has not yet broken upwards.

But if and when he pays attention, there are all the right levels to keep an eye on.

Second point.

YES.

Um, well, the second point has to do with July, that’s all.

We talked about it last week.

So I took that table plus another.

This is the new graph.

This is July just 20 years ago on the NASDAQ.

So each of these is July.

Only.

What you can see is that 10 of the last 11 years have been positive there and it’s incredible.

So you have to ask yourself: are we going to be pro-profit?

Of all this July.

Well, guess what, these are the first 10 days in the last 10 days of every single month and what we’ve shown is a chart that we looked at last week.

July here, the first ten days of July are the best of the year.

So we might see, you know, another big pop in July, let’s say Jared June, let’s say we sail into July.

Right?

Does this change the way you think about what might happen?

Sorry, set sail around July, you know it changes the way the picture of seasonality is painted here.

Well, this is interesting because today we saw a resurgence of this mega cap trade.

I think if we saw some outsized returns over the next few days through the end of the month, this kind of declines.

So you might think of it as increasing some of that demand.

So maybe July doesn’t necessarily have to come if we finish June with a bank.

But you know, if we go sideways down over the next few days, I would still be looking for that July pop.

All right.

Takeaway, Jared Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is located in front of the cliff of Mount Gox.

And for those of you who remember 10 years ago in Bitcoin, Mount Gox was the largest cryptocurrency exchange with 70% of all global volume and it crashed, it actually got hacked, they lost something like 750,000 Bitcoin.

Guess what?

There’s 100 and 40,000 of them that are sitting there, they have to be distributed by a trustee in Japan because that’s where the company is based.

Once 100 and 40,000 Bitcoins 9 billion dollars.

If they were all to hit the market at the same time, you could imagine the deluge of sales that would occur there.

They are worried about selling pressure.

Yes.

Uh Pull up the technicals, give me the, the Jared, take out the Bitcoin when the charts tell you right now.

Now here we speak my language.

Here, here is Bitcoin.

You can see that it’s down 4.6% from the trill.

Seven days, up 4.5% today.

You know, in recent years the situation has been quite tough, but it has recovered.

There’s also that Monk Cliff, in Germany, he was selling some Bitcoin that had been confiscated there, you know, into cryptocurrency, you never know the whole story, right?

But here’s the five-year chart and here’s what I want to show you.

Here’s another cup, here’s another handle.

This is higher, higher than this.

But we are still just reporting here waiting to break out until this range is broken.

It does not mean anything.

Alright, here’s what to watch Jared.

Thank’s my friend.

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