Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Set to Soar to $750,000, Says Expert
In a prediction shared via YouTube videoJoe Burnett, senior product marketing manager at Unchained Capital, articulates a strong case for Bitcoin to reach a $750,000 valuation. According to Burnett, the market may be substantially underestimating Bitcoin’s potential this cycle, often losing sight of its broader context within the global financial ecosystem.
Why Bitcoin Could Surge to $750,000
Burnett begins by addressing a common oversight in market analysis, which typically juxtaposes Bitcoin’s current cycle against historical performances without taking into account its evolving market context. “I think it’s possible that a lot of people are undervaluing Bitcoin in this cycle,” Burnett stated, emphasizing the need to view Bitcoin through the lens of its relative position in total global wealth.
A key component of Burnett’s argument is the HODL model created by Rational Root, which he discussed extensively on the “What Bitcoin Did” podcast. The model points to a critical inflection in 2020, coinciding with the third Bitcoin halving—an event that reduces the number of new bitcoins generated and therefore granted to miners to verify transactions.
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Burnett explains: “This model is fascinating because it shows a logical inflection point that occurred in 2020 around the third halving. He highlights that illiquid offer as a percentage of the total supply held at an all-time low, and has been slowly rising since then.” According to him, this reflects a shift towards Bitcoin being increasingly held by long-term holders rather than circulated by miners and speculators.
After 2020, Burnett argues that Bitcoin entered a new phase characterized by a decreasing supply of liquid coins. “Until the third halving, Bitcoin was really just in the process of distributing coins through proof-of-work mining; nearly 90% of all coins were mined by 2020,” he explains. The subsequent reduction in new coin generation after the halving spurred a gradual transition from a freely circulating supply to a more closely held asset.
Burnett’s forecast also takes advantage of a comparative analysis gold analysistraditionally seen as a robust store of value. He challenges this notion by highlighting flaws in gold’s economic mechanics, particularly its 1% to 2% annual increase in supply, which introduces continuous selling pressure. “Gold has a negative feedback loop, considering it is not perfectly scarce like Bitcoin. Hundreds of billions of dollars of new gold is mined annually,” Burnett points out, arguing that this diminishes gold’s appeal as an investment.
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On the other hand, he describes Bitcoin halving events as a “positive feedback loop,” where the decrease in new supply every four years inherently drives price appreciation, spurring new waves of adoption. “The amount of new Bitcoins being mined is cut in half. This repeats until no new Bitcoins are mined,” he adds, suggesting a built-in scarcity that reinforces its value over time.
Zooming in on a global scale, Burnett references the total global wealth of nearly quadrillions of dollars, of which Bitcoin’s current market cap is just a fraction. He argues that Bitcoin’s market share is poised for significant expansion, potentially commanding a sizable portion of global wealth.
This contrasts sharply with the more conservative expectations of several experts who barely see Bitcoin crossing the $100,000 threshold in the near future. “With all that said, the ‘concept of diminishing returns’ could easily be flawed. We live in a world with nearly $1 quadrillion of total global wealth and Bitcoin is 0.1% of that,” Burnett says.
He concludes with a quote from Michael Saylor: “All your models will be broken,” and added “anything below the size of gold is absurdly early. Gold parity is now at about $750,000 per Bitcoin, which means that if Bitcoin’s market size just reached the market size of gold.”
At press time, BTC was trading at $
BTC trades below key resistance area, 1-day chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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