Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Will Soar Amid Yen Collapse
American entrepreneur Arthur Hayes recently emphasized the crucial role of the US dollar-yen exchange rate in the global economy. According to Hayes, this exchange rate is the most important economic variable worldwide, with its fluctuations having significant effects on the global market. He also predicts a rapid devaluation of the yen this autumn, which could have important economic consequences.
The factors underlying this forecast involve complex interactions between the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Japanese Ministry of Finance, suggesting imminent economic instability.
Hayes highlights that the actions and policies of these entities will strongly influence the exchange rate and the economy in general.
Bitcoin: the safest asset there is?
Hayes argues that Bitcoin remains resilient amid the depreciation of global fiat currencies, making it the best performing asset in such crises. He suggests that Bitcoin benefits from increased capital flows as the yen and other traditional currencies lose value. Hayes even predicts that the price of Bitcoin could rise to unprecedented levels, potentially reaching $1 million.
This bullish Bitcoin price prediction is based on its historical performance, where it has consistently outperformed other assets during periods of fiat currency instability. As traditional markets become more volatile, investors may turn to Bitcoin as a safest harborfurther increasing its value.
Global Effects of a Weaker Yen
The implications of a weakened yen extend beyond Japan, affecting major global players such as China and the US. Hayes explains that a weaker yen makes Japanese exports cheaper, undermining the competitiveness of China’s exports. This could lead China to devalue its own currency, leading to further economic changes.
These devaluations can disrupt global trade patterns, increasing tensions between economic superpowers. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan must keep interest rates low during depreciation to avoid worsening financial losses, perpetuating the cycle of currency devaluation.
Challenges for policymakers
In this complex economic scenario, policymakers face difficult decisions. Hayes highlights that the simplest and most politically expedient choices often involve increasing the money supply to temporarily stabilize monetary values. However, these decisions can lead to inflation in the long term.
Hayes also suggests the possibility of unconventional measures. For example, China could peg the yuan to gold by quickly selling US Treasury bonds (USTs) for gold, potentially devaluing the yuan by 20-30%.
The need for vigilant monitoring
As the world navigates these unstable economic possibilities, Hayes suggests that closely watching the dollar-yen exchange rate is crucial for predicting market movements, especially in the crypto sector. Understanding these dynamics could provide valuable insights for both investors and policymakers, helping them navigate these turbulent times.
Also check out: Will Bitcoin Hit ATH This Week? Analyst predicts target price of US$72 thousand
Will Bitcoin really become the ultimate safe haven in this storm? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the future of finance is getting interesting.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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