Bitcoin
Why did BTC drop below $58K?
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Bitcoin price has been stuck below $58,000 for a long time. Despite being in a bull market, Bitcoin is not moving higher, and both market and non-market factors are to blame.
US CPI Impact
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3% in June. Analysts see this as a bullish sign for Bitcoin, but the price is not rising. If the US central bank cuts interest rates, the incentives for fixed-income investments will decrease, and people will seek investments with higher returns.
Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investment at E-Trade, told CNBC that the Federal Reserve is “one step closer to a September rate cut,” especially after workers’ real average hourly earnings fell 3.9% from a year ago.
The labor force participation rate also increased slightly, from 62.5% in May to 62.6% in June. Despite the data pointing to a higher chance of rate cuts, with a 90% consensus for at least a 0.25% rate cut by September, Bitcoin’s price remains below $60,000. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 stock market index is 0.5% below its all-time high, and gold is trading 1.2% below its May 2024 record high of $2,450. Even the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which excludes the 1,000 largest U.S.-listed companies, is up 3% on July 11.
German government BTC sales
The German government continues to dump nearly 50,000 bitcoins, seized in 2013, onto the market. They are worth nearly $3 billion. According to Watcher Guru, the German government now has just $285 million worth of BTC remaining.
Price analysis
Due to these issues, the market looks like a bear market despite being in a bull market. BTC is currently trading at $57,412 with an RSI value of 48.30. The Bitcoin chart shows a major rejection at $59,500, a strong resistance zone where the MA100 is also located. This 3.87% drop has pushed BTC back into the triangle zone, indicating that the bears are currently holding a strong base.
Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s market cap has fallen to $1.1 trillion, causing investors to worry. Sources suggest that while retail investors face selling pressureBTC whales and sharks are accumulating. Once the German government finishes selling its BTC and the pressure to pay out from Mt. Gox eases, the market may stabilize. It may take another 1-2 months for everything to settle down.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
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Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
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Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
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“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
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Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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