Bitcoin
What technical analysis tells us about the Bitcoin market
Technical analysis has long been relied upon to invest in cryptocurrencies. The discipline suits the highly volatile asset class well, not only because cryptocurrencies are driven by momentum, but also because they are generally subject to less headline risk than stocks, which can cloud supply/demand dynamics.
Investors can better understand the risk-reward dynamics of the cryptocurrency market by combining momentum indicators and overbought/oversold measures with the identification of key support and resistance levels. Investors can obtain relative strength data to help identify opportunities.
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Real-time analysis of the bitcoin chart shows that in early May 2024, there was a loss of medium-term momentum by momentum indicators such as the MACD (Moving-Average-Convergence-Divergence), which has a bearish crossover . The loss of momentum suggests that bitcoin is in a corrective phase that is likely to persist for at least a few more weeks. The downside risk can be framed by the next support on the chart, near $51,500, which is set by 38.2%. Fibonacci Retracement of the uptrend off the 2022 low and reinforced by a rising 200-day moving average.
The loss of momentum must be viewed within a long-term bullish framework. Bitcoin reached new highs in March 2024. The breakout extended bitcoin’s secular uptrend with implications for the coming months, if not years. This suggests that once there are signs that a corrective minimum is in place, the risk/reward ratio will be more favorable for investors.
O weekly stochastic oscillator, which is an indicator of overbought and oversold conditions, is a useful tool to help identify when a corrective low has been established. For now, Stochastics have room for oversold territory (20%), increasing the likelihood that a deeper pullback in price will occur before the long-term uptrend resumes. A rebound in the weekly stochastic from oversold territory would be a positive near-term technical catalyst for bitcoin regardless of the level at which it occurs.
A relative strength entry that is useful for identifying potential winners and losers in the cryptocurrency market is a Relative Rotation Chart® or RRG. The RRG shows the altcoin’s rotation normalized in relation to bitcoin, which is in the chart’s crosshairs. There is an inherent clockwise rotation of altcoins on RRG, helping us determine when certain altcoins are rotating in or out of favor relative to bitcoin.
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Most altcoins on the chart point down and to the left, which reflects bitcoin’s strong position in the market, particularly during a corrective phase that sometimes sees a flight to safety (in relative terms). We would expect most of the altcoins on the bottom left of the chart to eventually rotate in favor as more risk-on positioning resurfaces in a sign that the corrective phase has matured.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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