Bitcoin
US Nonfarm Payrolls Watched as Bitcoin Heads for Biggest Weekly Loss Since FTX Collapse
How to settle in bitcoin (BTC) spirals out of control, one analyst is pinning hopes on Friday’s U.S. jobs report to ease the decline.
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, fell below $54,000 early Friday amid reports that the now-defunct Mt. Gox exchange moved $2.6 billion worth of BTC, allegedly for creditor payments. Mt. Gox later said that started refunds to its customerswhich led to a moderate reaction from bitcoin.
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is down more than 13% on the week, the most significant single-week percentage decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022, according to data from CoinDesk and TradingView.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release its June nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday at 12:30 UTC (08:00 UTC), according to economists’ consensus forecast. researched by FactSetNFP data is expected to show the economy created 190,000 jobs in June, a significant moderation from May’s 272,000 additions, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 4%.
In potentially positive news on the inflation rate, average hourly earnings growth is expected to slow to 0.3% in June from 0.4% in May, equating to an annual increase of 3.9%, down from 4.1% in May.
The main concerns for macro traders, who have been testing the BTC market since 2020, are the timing and number of Fed rate cuts. Since last Friday’s weak US PCE inflation data, traders have nearly priced in two rate cuts for this year, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.
So-called moderate, risk-on expectations for assets are likely to strengthen further if Friday’s jobs numbers show weaker-than-expected growth, according to Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at cryptocurrency exchange Bitfinex.
“If the NFP report shows weaker-than-expected job growth, it could raise expectations for future rate cuts, which could boost bitcoin prices as investors seek alternative assets in anticipation of looser monetary policy,” Kooner told CoinDesk in an email.
Kooner explained that flows into US-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, favored by macro investors and institutions, could pick up pace if “market participants believe that economic uncertainty will lead the Fed to eventual rate cuts.”
Kooner, however, cautioned that the magnitude of flows will be impacted by overall market sentiment and demand for risk assets in general.
“However, significant inflows would depend on broader market sentiment and risk appetite. Currently, however, we have recently seen significantly lower-than-expected inflows and a lack of ‘buying on the dip,’” Kooner said. “If the labor market appears more resilient, bitcoin could face downward pressure as the likelihood of near-term rate cuts diminishes.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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