Bitcoin
Three Sparks Propelling Bitcoin to $100,000 – DL News
- Bitcoin is getting ready to explode towards $100,000.
- While the Fed has not yet cut interest rates, it could be contributing to the recovery, analysts say.
Macro conditions have improved a lot for Bitcoin over the past week.
Both the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury made liquidity conditions significantly easier for risky assets in the second quarter of the year.
That’s according to David Brickell, head of international distribution at institutional capital markets firm FRNT Financial, and Chris Mill, a former FX trader at the Bank of England.
“Bitcoin may begin its next leg higher, beginning the climb to $100,000,” they he wrote in their joint crypto newsletter, “Connecting the Dots.”
Three reasons
The market has been very bearish lately, analysts said, and now it is likely to move higher again.
“The market is positioned very aggressively and underweight risk,” they wrote. “This aggressive positioning will need to unwind in the coming weeks and will provide a powerful tailwind to our markets.”
The analyst pointed out three reasons why liquidity conditions are likely to improve in the near future.
The first reason was that the Federal Reserve adopted a relatively dovish tone at last week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting, quelling concerns that the US central bank might raise interest rates again soon.
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If it had raised interest rates, the Federal Reserve would have made it more expensive to lend money to people and businesses.
Risky investments like Bitcoin tend to perform poorly in these conditions, while the US dollar tends to grow stronger.
The agency also announced that it would scale back its quantitative tightening program sooner than expected – meaning it will reinvest an additional $35 billion into the bond market starting in June.
“[Fed chair] Jerome Powell is pushing the market to the right, with risk on the rise!” the report said.
The second reason was that the US Treasury announced a debt buyback program – the first of its kind since the early 2000s – that will aim to support liquidity in the Treasury market in June and July.
“Between the Fed and the US Treasury… liquidity conditions in the second quarter will be significantly easier to maintain control over yields and the dollar, reversing what was becoming a stronger headwind for both Bitcoin and risk broader,” the analysts wrote.
Finally, weak employment numbers were released on Friday – which the report says will force the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon.
“Especially before the election, the Fed will respond quickly to signs of weakness in the labor market,” he said.
“We were waiting for a spark that would lift us out of the lethargy and strong Bitcoin price action. Between the Fed and the US Treasury, this spark has been ignited,” the analysts added.
Crypto Market Movers
- Bitcoin fell 2.6% to $61,880 in the last 24 hours.
- Ethereum fell 2.3% to $3,000.
What are we reading
Tom Carreras is markets correspondent for DL News. Have a tip about Bitcoin? Get in touch at tcarreras@dlnews.com.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
Fuente
Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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