Bitcoin
Stick with Bitcoin, Avoid Ether, Says 10x Survey After Fed Predicts Just One Rate Cut for 2024
10x Research continues to defend bitcoin even as the top cryptocurrency trades under pressure following the Fed’s aggressive interest rate projections.
On Wednesday, the US central bank left the benchmark borrowing cost unchanged in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%, as expected. however foreseen just one rate reduction this year, down from three in March. Given the softer-than-expected CPI release earlier in the day, the Fed’s new rate forecast likely spooked markets, causing bitcoin to fall.
The leading cryptocurrency by market cap has retreated to $67,400 since the Fed released rate projections, reversing the post-CPI jump to $70,000. CoinDesk data shows.
Yet, 10x Research maintains a positive outlook on bitcoin, expressing confidence that the rally will resume soon.
“Our recommendation remains unchanged: stick with the winners (Bitcoin) and avoid others (like Ethereum). Our previous analysis has shown that a lower CPI number tends to push Bitcoin prices higher, and we anticipate this trend will continue,” Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, in a note to clients on Thursday.
The US consumer price inflation rate remained stable in May, missing the consensus estimate of a 0.1% increase and below the 0.3% in April. The year-on-year rate was 3.3%, corresponding to estimates and below the 3.4% in April.
According to Thielen, slowing inflation has historically attracted huge inflows into US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Provisional data for Distant investors show that ETFs accumulated $100 million on Wednesday, snapping a two-day streak of outflows.
Thielen explained that ETF flows dried up after their debut on Jan. 11 when the December CPI rose, weakening the case for Fed rate cuts. Flows resumed in February, pushing bitcoin higher.
“ETF flows turned positive in late January, but only began to accelerate slightly before the CPI data was released on February 13. But when inflation rose again to 3.2% on March 12, flows Bitcoin ETFs stopped when the market priced in the narrative of 2-3 rate cuts,” Thielen noted in late May.
Thielen expects the Fed to signal more rate cuts later this year as inflation has already peaked.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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