Bitcoin
Kamala Harris could spell the end of Democrats’ hardline stance on cryptocurrencies, but it’s too early to say for sure
In President Biden, the crypto world has long faced a fierce critic whose administration has blocked legislation to help the industry and focused almost entirely on enforcement. Now, after a historic weekend in which Biden withdrew his reelection bid, the crypto industry must now assess his vice president, Kamala Harris, who is almost certain to represent the Democrats on the 2024 ticket. Would crypto face more of the same under a Harris presidency — or would she take a softer stance?
Harris hails from the nation’s tech capital, California. While she went after social media platforms for sexual harassment during her time as the state’s attorney general, she also cultivated a close relationship with executives like Meta’s Sheryl Sandberg, leading to a reputation as a pro-business politician. Many in crypto hope she will bring the same vision to the campaign trail and potentially the White House.
“Given the increasing bipartisanship we’re seeing in Congress, I’m hopeful that Harris’ presidency will continue on this path,” Adam Minehardt, head of global government relations at the Stellar Development Foundation and former chief of staff to Nydia Velázquez (D-N.Y.), said in a text message to Fortune.
Radical change
The Biden administration may not have started out with an anti-crypto bent, but the collapse of FTX and the fallout from Sam Bankman-Fried’s political donations have set off a chain reaction of hostility. A series of congressional hearings in late 2022 and early 2023 highlighted the risks of blockchain platforms to consumers and government agencies headed by Biden appointees, such as the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission Gary Gensler has taken legal action against some of the biggest players in the industry.
Despite the chilly atmosphere, Democrats and centrist Republicans pushed forward with several landmark pieces of legislation, including a sweeping overhaul regulation of market structure of the House Financial Services Committee, as well as a bill to repeal a controversial SEC bulletin which has received broad bipartisan support. Meanwhile, former President Trump has embraced the blockchain sector, including a scheduled appearance at the Bitcoin conference later this week. His vice presidential pick, Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), has also carved out a niche as a crypto advocate and personally it has Bitcoin.
Harris may have risen to become a California senator — and then vice president — as a pro-tech politician, but she hasn’t publicly taken a stance on blockchain regulation. One cryptocurrency lobbyist, who spoke to Fortune on the condition of anonymity to speak candidly about the evolving political dynamics, described the situation as “up in the air.” They said all eyes will be on Harris’s pick for vice president — as well as which advisers she surrounds herself with.
When Biden became president, many of his economic advisors came from the progressive camp and worked specifically with Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a vocal critic of cryptocurrencies. Harris doesn’t have the same connections. A crypto policy adviser and former Biden administration official, who spoke to Fortune on condition of anonymity, said Harris has been largely excluded from economic policy. “She doesn’t have the same rapport that Biden and Warren had, or even the same closeness to Warren’s team,” they said. Still, Warren endorsed Harris shortly after Biden withdrew his candidacy on Sunday.
If Harris is elected, the question will be whether she seeks to appoint a new SEC chair, with Gensler’s term set to end in 2026, though she could push for a clean slate. The crypto lobbyist said it would be the “safest path” to keep the Biden administration’s infrastructure in place.
While Harris didn’t even secure the Democratic nomination, a blockchain trade group — the Digital Chamber — took the opportunity to publish a letter asking her to support crypto legislation. “We believe this technology is nonpartisan and the Democratic Party should also champion these innovations,” they wrote.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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