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June 2024 Crypto Market Forecast – Forbes Consultant

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June 2024 Crypto Market Forecast – Forbes Consultant

Editorial Note: We earn a commission for partner links on Forbes Advisor. Commissions do not affect our editors’ opinions or ratings.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices have recovered and other major cryptocurrencies have gained ground over the past month as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission surprised Wall Street by making a rule change to allow the creation of Ethereum (ETH) exchange-traded funds at View.

Investors have already flocked to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies following the SEC’s approval in January of the first spot bitcoin ETFs for trading on major U.S. exchanges. However, regulators continue to target the cryptocurrency industry, taking on cryptocurrency exchanges and their high-level executives, including associates of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried.

Furthermore, cryptocurrency investors hope that the Federal Reserve has made enough progress on inflation to navigate a soft landing for the US economy and begin cutting interest rates in the second half of 2024.

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May Crypto Market Performance

After rising to $3,973 for the month, Ethereum was on track to close May above $3,770 as investors expected the first spot Ethereum ETF Getting to the market could be just around the corner.

Unlike futures ETFs – which use futures contracts to track the potential future price of an underlying asset, spot cryptocurrency ETFs track the current or spot price of a cryptocurrency.

Optimism surrounding the possible SEC approval of spot Ethereum ETFs also pushed other cryptocurrencies higher in the month of May, with bitcoin prices rising to $72,000.

However, the price of bitcoin retreated from these highs towards the end of the month, although BTC was still on track to end May above $68,200.

In total, bitcoin prices rose 5.9% in May and are now up more than 60% year to date. Ethereum prices are also up over 17.1% for the month and are up 64.1% overall so far in 2024.

Among the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, ChainLink (LINK) was the best performer in May with a 29% gain. Cardano (ADA) was the worst performer with a 1.8% drop.

SEC Opens Doors to Spot Ethereum ETFs

Less than six months after the SEC approved the first Spot bitcoin ETFsThe regulator recently made a major rule change that could pave the way for the first spot Ethereum ETFs to trade on major US exchanges.

On May 23, the SEC issued a rule change that allows three major US exchanges to list and trade potentially eight different Ethereum spot funds. Approvals include the following grants and funds:

  • NYSE Arca: Grayscale Ethereum Trust and Bitwise Ethereum ETF
  • Nasdaq: iShares Ethereum Trust
  • CBOE BZX: VanEck Ethereum Trust, ARK 21Shares Ethereum ETF, Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF, Fidelity Ethereum Fund and Franklin Ethereum ETF

This ruling gives exchanges the green light to list SEC-approved Ethereum spot ETFs, but only if the SEC has first approved the individual funds themselves. The rule change does not guarantee that all of the funds mentioned above will be approved or that they will be launched in the near future. The SEC has yet to decide on each Ethereum ETF application individually and has not provided any timeline for those decisions.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have paved the way

After years of repeated rejections, the SEC finally approved the top spot bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, and the funds were a success.

The 11 SEC-approved bitcoin spot ETFs generated net inflows of more than $12 billion, according to FactSet. Top bitcoin spot funds include BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Grayscale’s Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), each of which has nearly $20 billion in assets.

Bitcoin and Ethereum are not the same

Bitcoin and Ethereum have separated themselves from thousands of other cryptocurrencies as market leaders, accounting for 70.8% of the total global cryptocurrency market capitalization. However, while both Bitcoin and Ethereum have been exceptional long-term investments up to this point, their designs and goals are very different.

Bitcoin investors view the cryptocurrency primarily as a store of value and an alternative to traditional government-backed fiat currencies.

Ether is the native cryptocurrency of the Ethereum network, which houses decentralized applications, smart contracts, non-fungible tokensor NFTs and other decentralized blockchain projects.

How Spot Ethereum ETFs May Differ From Spot Bitcoin ETFs

Market experts predict that the first class of spot Ethereum ETFs will be much smaller than their spot Bitcoin counterparts.

The Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE), which currently trades over the counter in the United States, it only has about $11 billion in assets under management. Grayscale secured a major legal victory over the SEC in 2023, which helped pave the way for the SEC to approve the first bitcoin ETFs just months later.

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, says the SEC ruling and the potential launch of spot Ethereum ETFs likely mean Ethereum prices are poised to reach new highs in the near future.

“As a reminder, both bitcoin and ETH reached record highs in 2021, but only bitcoin managed to surpass the previous record in 2024,” says Kruger.

“Given the positive momentum on the adoption and regulatory fronts, we suspect that ETH will indeed be able to reach a new all-time high, which could very well translate into another big increase in bullish momentum in the coming days and weeks.”

Other Crypto Headlines

As the 2024 election season ramps up, cryptocurrencies are receiving high-level attention in Washington, D.C.

In May, the House of Representatives passed the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act by 279 votes to 136. The bill gained unanimous Republican support and 71 House Democrats, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, voted to favor. also.

If sanctioned, it will provide a detailed framework for the disclosure and registration of digital asset companies. It would also make the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, or CFTC, the main crypto industry regulator.

The SEC has faced harsh criticism from crypto experts for keeping the industry under traditional disclosure regimes.

Crypto and the US Presidential Race

Former president and presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has apparently changed his mind about cryptocurrencies.

In May, Trump said that, if elected, he would commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the cryptocurrency advocate and former operator of the black market website Silk Road, who is currently serving multiple life sentences. Although Trump has previously said he is “not a fan” of cryptocurrencies, his campaign announced in May that it will now accept cryptocurrency donations.

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke at the Consensus 2024 event in late May, signaling his support for blockchain innovation and his commitment to protecting the industry from hostile regulators.

Consensus 2024 was a cryptocurrency industry-related event organized by crypto media company CoinDesk.

Kennedy had previously highlighted the potential power of cryptocurrency to help protect Americans’ transactional freedom.

Phillip Shoemaker, CEO of Identity.com, says the 2024 elections could be the first in which top US politicians use cryptocurrency policies to attract voters.

“Congress promoted a market structure bill as a way to properly regulate crypto, and this represents huge progress for the space,” says Shoemaker.

He says there are many voters in the crypto space who are single-issue voters, and politicians seem to be aware of the opportunity this stance creates.

“You have Trump and RFK Jr. talking positively about crypto — and again, this is brand new.”

Another FTX sentence

On May 28, former FTX executive Ryan Salame was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison for his role in crimes associated with the 2022 collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison in March, but Salame is the first of Bankman-Fried’s associates to be convicted and sentenced as well.

Crypto Catalysts Ahead

A major cryptocurrency market catalyst in June could be the Federal Reserve. In addition to announcing an interest rate decision at its meeting ending June 12, the FOMC will also provide updated long-term economic projections, including its expectations for how many interest rate cuts investors can expect in 2024.

The bond market predicts a 64.7% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by November 2024, but a positive employment report in May or an inflation reading could put pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates at the same level. current for longer than expected.

Stephanie Vaughan, co-founder of decentralized finance protocol Veda, says the launch of the first spot Ethereum ETFs will be a major crypto market catalyst in June and beyond.

“These ETFs are basically a traditional wrapper for accessing the emerging world of crypto – in this case, the world’s most important smart contract blockchain. More than that, I think Ethereum ETFs will help drive education and understanding in terms of what Ethereum actually does and why it is such an incredible innovation,” says Vaughan.

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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