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It will soon be ‘do or die’ for Bitcoin price, says analyst

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Bitcoin Analysis Using the Ichimoku Cloud

Josh Olszewicz, a renowned crypto analyst, recently shared criticism insights in the immediate future of the Bitcoin price, employing two technical analysis frameworks: the Ichimoku Cloud and the Bollinger Bands. These tools suggest pivotal moments that could shape Bitcoin’s price trajectory in the short and medium term.

Bitcoin Analysis Using the Ichimoku Cloud

In the first daily Ichimoku Cloud chart, Olszewicz highlights a critical moment for Bitcoin as it navigates this complex indicator. The Ichimoku Cloud, known for providing support and resistance levels as well as momentum and trend direction, shows Bitcoin trading near the edge of the cloud. This is significant because a break above the cloud could suggest a optimistic outlookwhile falling below the cloud often signals bearish momentum.

Bitcoin Analysis Using the Ichimoku CloudBitcoin Analysis Using the Ichimoku Cloud | Source: X @CarpeNoctom

Here, Olszewicz emphasizes a “do or die” scenario for Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin, last recorded on the chart at $64,570, is approaching the edge of the cloud. “Nobody likes ultimatums, but here it’s all or die very soon on the daily BTC cloud,” he warned.

A significant aspect of the Ichimoku Cloud chart is the relationship between the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and the Kijun-Sen (blue line). The Tenkan-Sen, which is a short-term moving average, remains above the Kijun-Sen, a long-term moving average, indicating positive momentum in the short term.

Weekly Bollinger Bands Analysis

Moving to the weekly chart equipped with Bollinger Bands, Olszewicz discusses another potential inflection point. Bollinger Bands serve as a measure of volatility – narrow bands suggest low volatility, while wider bands indicate higher volatility. The Bitcoin chart shows a narrowing of these bands around the current price level, which may precede a significant price movement, often referred to as “Bollinger band compression”.

Bitcoin Bollinger Band AnalysisBitcoin Bollinger Band Analysis | Source: X @CarpeNoctom

The fact that Bitcoin is hovering just above the midline (the 20-period moving average) of the Bollinger Bands at $64,238 points to a tenuous balance between buying and selling forces. However, the narrowing of the bands is particularly notable because it can lead to a decisive breakout or breakout, depending on other market factors and traders’ sentiment.

If Bitcoin breaks below the midline, the next support could be found at the lower Bollinger Band, currently positioned around $51,792, which could represent a significant drop in price. On the other hand, if Bitcoin breaks out of the midline and gains upward momentum, it could reach the upper part of the Bollinger Band, situated at approximately $76,684, indicating a potential recovery.

The analyst points out that understanding the implications of a Bollinger band squeeze can be crucial for traders, as such periods of low volatility often end in sharp price movements. “If you didn’t like the cloud ultimatum, here are the weekly BBands,” commented Olszewicz.

Both charts, although they use different analytical tools, converge on a similar narrative: Bitcoin has potential inflection point which could define its price action in the coming days or weeks. Current levels near the upper limits of the Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands underline the tension in the market.

At press time, BTC traded at $65,494.

Bitcoin PriceBTC Price, 1 Week Chart | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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Bitcoin

How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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Bitcoin

India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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