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Forget the S&P 500: Bitcoin Could Still Be the Best Long-Term Investment If You Want to Retire a Millionaire

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Forget the S&P 500: Bitcoin Could Still Be the Best Long-Term Investment If You Want to Retire a Millionaire

Over multi-year horizons, Bitcoin continues to outperform all other major asset classes, and it’s not even close.

O S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is making new highs at the same time as Bitcoin (Bitcoin 1.51%) is hitting new all-time highs, which is leading to an interesting dilemma for investors. Should they invest in the S&P 500 or Bitcoin?

The answer may surprise you. Yes, Bitcoin is extraordinarily volatile. And yes, the crypto market has historically been a very risky place to invest. But there’s a good reason why institutional investors are betting on Bitcoin these days: It’s impossible to ignore Bitcoin’s superior long-term returns.

Bitcoin versus S&P 500

The idea that Bitcoin might be a better long-term investment than S&P 500 It may be controversial, but consider the evidence. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest recently crunched the numbers and the results are jaw-dropping, to say the least.

Wood compared Bitcoin’s price performance to that of six other major asset classes (gold, commodities, real estate, bonds, stocks and emerging markets) over different time horizons going back seven years. To track stock performance, she used stock performance. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Fund (SPY 0.91%).

To say that Bitcoin has outperformed these other asset classes over the past seven years would be an understatement. During this seven-year period, Bitcoin’s annualized returns were an impressive 44%. Other major asset classes averaged a return of just 5.7%. In fact, it didn’t matter if you looked at a seven-year, six-year, five-year, four-year, or three-year time horizon. The results were always the same: Bitcoin dominated all other major asset classes.

And, if you ignore the down year of 2022, when the price of Bitcoin collapsed, the results would arguably be even more impressive. In the period between 2011 and 2021, Bitcoin was the best performing asset in the world, and it wasn’t even close. Bitcoin delivered 230% annualized returns, while the S&P delivered 14% annualized returns.

How much Bitcoin should you have in your portfolio?

Using Modern Portfolio Theory, which takes into account factors such as correlations between asset classes, it is possible to calculate how much Bitcoin should be in your portfolio. As you may have already guessed, this percentage has been steadily increasing over time.

Wood found that Bitcoin’s optimal allocation has increased from 1% in 2017 to just under 5% in 2021. And given Bitcoin’s heroic performance in 2023 (when its value soared by more than 150%), the optimal allocation under this theory has now increased. to a whopping 19.4%!

Image source: Getty Images.

Although I am extremely bullish on Bitcoin, I would never advise anyone to invest almost 20% of their portfolio in such a risky and volatile asset. After all, as even Wood acknowledges, there have been at least four major crashes in Bitcoin’s history, when its price fell by 77% or more.

Let me put this another way. Over the nearly 15-year history of Bitcoin, there have been four nightmarish periods where you could lose a large portion of your wealth if you had a large portion in Bitcoin. In a typical Bitcoin collapse, you can lose almost everything in a very short period of time.

This is scary, but it also points to Bitcoin’s resilience. After each major bloodbath, Bitcoin came back even stronger, setting new all-time highs. But you have to be patient. You need to have a long enough holding period to ensure you can capture all of Bitcoin’s upside while recovering from any particularly nasty dips.

Does slow and steady still win the race?

Obviously, comparing Bitcoin’s performance to that of the S&P 500 will be controversial. But you can’t ignore the evidence. No matter how impressive the S&P 500 performs over a given period of time, Bitcoin is almost certain to outperform it.

So, if you really want to become a millionaire, you might consider adding a slice of Bitcoin to your portfolio. Think of it as the magic rocket fuel that can take your portfolio to new heights. Just make sure you’re buckled up and ready for some periods of extreme turbulence.

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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