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BTC Summer 2024: Analyzing Market Trends and Future Drivers

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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BTC Summer 2024: Analyzing Market Trends and Future Drivers

Bitcoin is currently in a lull between narratives. The excitement, speculation, and rapid pace of inflows from the ETF launch have subsided. There isn’t much good news on the horizon, perhaps until the US election in November. In the meantime, it seems that BTC is mainly facing crypto and macro headwinds.

In June, BTC nearly hit all-time highs before higher-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data sent prices tumbling to $58,000 despite lower inflation numbers. The start of Mt. Gox’s $9 billion BTC distribution and the sale of seized BTC by the German government sent BTC as low as $54,000, but it has now recovered to the low 60,000s. Once Mt. Gox’s distributions are completed in the coming months, it will remove significant price risk. Despite these negative factors, BTC has shown resilience. The next potential catalyst is the approval of an ETH ETF. With less liquidity than BTC, strong inflows could push ETH higher, although a BTC-like oversupply could occur.

Politically, we’ve seen Donald Trump include positive comments about BTC and digital assets in his regular campaign speech, taking an “America First” stance aimed at keeping jobs and wealth here in the US. If Trump is re-elected, the price of BTC will likely benefit (although the shape of the Trump Administration’s policy on digital assets is unclear). It’s possible we’ll see speculative buying leading up to Election Day as well — a positive narrative on the horizon.

Finally, we saw several major central banks cut rates in June, including Canada and the EU. As one of the biggest correlates of BTC price is the global market M2 LiquidityThese rate cuts suggest that the trend of increasing global liquidity is moving in a beneficial direction.

In early June, BTC nearly reached all-time highs before tailwinds pushed it to the lows of the June range. Despite the lower-than-expected PPI, the market showed signs of buyer fatigue. Mt. Gox later announced BTC distributions to creditors in July, and the German government sold seized BTC, causing prices to fall below $60,000. ETH remained more resilient but still below its May ETF rally.

BTC currently lacks a clear narrative, with only negative events on the horizon, giving buyers little to rally behind. In contrast, ETH is anticipating the launch date of its ETFs, which should generate excitement in the market due to its lower liquidity compared to BTC. Many predict an ETF S-1 approval sometime in July, which could spark interest and demand. Investors will also be watching to see whether altcoins and BTC rally alongside ETH.

On the political front, Trump continues to speak out positively about BTC and crypto in their campaign speeches while Biden remains largely silent on the subject. Later this month, BTC 2024 takes place in Nashville, with several politicians in attendance, including Donald Trump. This venue would offer a sensible place for a candidate to announce important positions on the topic of digital assets.

Please note: The opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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Bitcoin

India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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