Bitcoin
Bitcoin skies remain blue on the back of Germany sell-offs and Mt. Gox refunds
It may seem like turbulent times in the cryptocurrency market amid Bitcoin from Germany (BTC) sales and fears about mass liquidations of defunct exchanges Mt. Gox Creditors. However, looking beyond these supply gluts reveals a promising outlook, underpinned by favorable macroeconomic factors and sustained risk-taking in traditional markets.
BTC, the top cryptocurrency by market value, has fallen more than 17% to $57,200 in four weeks, sending meme coins, digital assets purportedly tied to artificial intelligence (AI) and other risky corners of the crypto market into a tailspin. CoinDesk Data Show.
The overall picture, however, remains bullish, meaning that once the supply glut from Germany and Mt. Gox creditors is gone, the market could stage an impressive recovery.
Investors generally show a greater willingness to invest money in risky and growth-sensitive assets, such as bitcoin and stocks, during periods of global economic expansion.
The G-7, an informal grouping of advanced economies, is currently experiencing an expansionary phase of the economic cycle amid high interest rates, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) composite headline indicator.
The indicator, which measures the short-term economic outlook for a group of major nations, has surpassed 100 and is rising, indicating above-trend growth and acceleration, according to TS Lombard.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June consumer price index (CPI) report, due out Thursday, is expected to show the cost of living rose 3.1% over the year, slowing from a 3.3% annual increase in May, according to a survey of economists by The Wall Street Journal.
The expected slowdown would imply continued progress toward the Fed’s 2% target, strengthening the case for the central bank to start lowering benchmark borrowing costs this year.
Further rate cuts could further catalyze demand for risk assets, including bitcoin. Weaker-than-expected CPI prints since the start of this year have galvanized inputs in spot bitcoin ETFs, increasing the market value of the cryptocurrency.
“We forecast core CPI rose 0.1% m/m due in part to another drop in energy prices. This would result in the y/y rate falling a tenth to 3.2% and the NSA index reading 314.770. Meanwhile, we expect core CPI to have increased 0.2% m/m,” BofA economists said in a July 5 note to clients.
“If the CPI report is in line with our expectations, we will maintain our expectations that the Fed will start its cutting cycle in December,” the economists added, saying a core CPI of 0.2% m/m would increase the chances of an early rate cut.
The path of least resistance for bitcoin lies on the higher side as Wall Street remains entrenched in a wave of tech optimism, as evidenced by new record highs in the ratio of its tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) index to the broader S&P 500 (SPX).
Since the beginning of 2017, bitcoin has moved in sync with the NDX/SPX ratio making strong gains during periods of relatively outperformance by technology stocks.
Furthermore, social media concerns about a potential collapse in US stocks, adding to downward pressures on other risk assets, may be unfounded, as the stock market does not appear to be in a bubble.
“Whenever US margin debt increases, we hear calls for a bubble forming in US equity markets. However, unlike previous bubble episodes (including 2020-21), margin debt is growing at a slower rate than equity market capitalization. Rather than being a driver of equity performance, it is likely a consequence. This is not surprising given the current high level of interest rates, which is not conducive to leverage increases,” TS Lombard said in a July note to clients.
“Another indication that the US stock market is not in bubble territory is investor positioning, which is close to neutral on both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures,” Lombard added.
Gold has also held steady recently, a sign that the macroeconomic outlook is favorable for assets with alternative investment appeal, such as bitcoin.
Finally, previous data shows that months after the rewards halving are optimistic and characterized by double-digit price corrections. The Bitcoin blockchain underwent its fourth halving in April this year.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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