Bitcoin
Bitcoin Recovers Towards $60K, But Shakiness Likely to Persist: Analysts
Cryptocurrencies rebounded on Tuesday, with bitcoin {{BTC}} rising nearly 3% to around $58,000 as fears following last week’s collapse eased.
The recovery was widespread, with the market benchmark index CoinDesk 20 Index is up 2.4% in the past 24 hours, led by gains in solana {{SOL}}, filecoin {{FIL}}, and native tokens of Avalanche {{AVAX}} and Internet Computer Protocol {{ICP}}.
CoinDesk Top 20 Leaders as of July 9 (CoinDesk)
The rally could last a while, with BTC potentially reaching $60,000, but the rally will be short-lived, said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research.
“The $55,000 to $56,000 range is forming a base from a technical analysis perspective. However, given the medium-term technical damage, we do not anticipate more than a short-term tactical bullish countertrend rally,” Thielen said in a market update on Tuesday.
“We anticipate Bitcoin could recover to near $60,000 before experiencing another decline into the low $50,000 range, creating a complex trading environment,” he added.
Seasonal trends aren’t helping bitcoin either, with the third quarter historically offering the weakest returns, Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, noted on Tuesday.
The weak seasonality coincides with the sale of seized assets by the German state of Saxony and the continued distribution of refunds from Mt. Gox weighing on priceshe added.
Read more: It’s not Germany that’s selling Bitcoin. It’s one of its states and it has no choice.
According to estimates from K33 Research, the market will have to absorb 75,000 to 118,000 BTC from Saxony and Mt. Gox customer sales over the summer, worth $4.3 billion to $6.8 billion at current prices.
Bitcoin Selling Pressure Estimates from Mt. Gox Refunds, Germany (K33 Research)
“We expect these flows to weigh on performance in the coming months and for choppy market conditions to last through October,” Lunde said.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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