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Bitcoin Prices Approach $65,000 and Hit Lowest Level Since Mid-May

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Bitcoin Prices Approach $65,000 and Hit Lowest Level Since Mid-May

Bitcoin prices have fallen to almost $65,000 today. (Photo illustration by Chesnot/Getty Images)

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Bitcoin prices retreated today, falling to their lowest level in nearly a month as several factors combined to fuel its latest declines.

The world’s most prominent digital currency fell to $65,005 this afternoon, according to Coinbase data sourced from TradingView. At this point, the cryptocurrency had been trading since at least mid-May.

When asked to explain this latest price development, analysts highlighted several factors, ranging from recent decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee to developments in futures markets.

The Fed’s Potential “Policy Mistake”

The FOMC may have erred earlier this week when it opted to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged and predicted it would cut the rate just once in 2024, according to one market watcher.

“There is a strong emerging narrative of ‘did the Fed make a policy mistake’ as on Wednesday they kept rates at recent highs and postponed projected cuts for the rest of the year, just as several indicators of inflation and economic growth. to light,” Seth Ginns, managing partner and head of net investments at CoinFundstated through comments sent via email.

Independent analyst Armando Aguilar also weighed in on this matter, explaining how this has affected sentiment around bitcoin and the broader digital currency markets.

“The FED leaving rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50% and anticipating fewer rate cuts this year has dampened hopes of BTC rising toward new ATH levels,” he said via email.

“Instead, rising fears of high interest rates have contributed to fewer capital flows into crypto investment products,” Aguilar added.

“Going from three rate cuts to potentially just one, traders have weighed in on expectations about expected rate cuts weighing on assets like cryptocurrencies.”

Impact of the FOMC on real yields

Ginns elaborated on how the Fed’s recent decisions could impact real yields, which are yields adjusted for inflation.

“Bitcoin
Bitcoin
it has a strong inverse correlation with real income”, he emphasized.

“So if the Fed holds rates and inflation is slowing, real yields will rise, which is bad for bitcoin,” Ginns pointed out.

“The Fed has made it very clear that it does not want real yields to rise, so we expect it to become more dovish in public appearances in the coming weeks if we see continued data on weaker inflation.”

Crypto Futures Market

Several analysts have commented on how recent changes in futures positions have affected both bitcoin and crypto markets in general.

“Open interest data on cryptocurrency exchanges shows large accumulation of long positions after ETH
Ethereum
Approval of ETF Spot”, Julio Moreno, head of research at CriptoQuantsaid via Telegram.

However, “a few days ago, prices started to fall due to profit taking, and then an influx of new short positions fueled today’s decline.”

Greg Magadini, Director of Derivatives at Digital Asset Data Provider Amberdataalso offered his opinion on the matter.

“Following the positive ETH ETF sentiment, we saw a large increase in crypto futures open interest, but since then the macro environment has become more aggressive due to strong employment and the recent FOMC rate decision and press conference” , he said in an email.

“The market is now only looking for a rate cut in 2024. This, combined with the realization that recent Bitcoin ETF inflows may be due to ‘basis trading’ rather than direct Bitcoin investments, we are seeing headwinds for higher prices,” said Magadini.

He elaborated, indicating via Telegram that “the macro environment has turned aggressive and people who bought futures on the SEC ETF decision are now stuck as sellers.”

“Furthermore, inflows into the BTC ETF are not as directly bullish as initially assumed, since it appears that many of these inflows are paired with short CME futures,” Magadini added.

Disclosure: I own some bitcoin, bitcoin cash, litecoin, ether, EOS and SOL.

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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