Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Volatility Signals Possible Q3 Bull Run: Key Metrics Explained
Bitcoins Recent price volatility, with a drop to $53,500 amid significant liquidations by the German government and Mt. Gox creditors, has caught investors’ attention. Despite this, the price has recovered to $57,500, indicating resilience in on-chain metrics. Major U.S. institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity are buying Bitcoin ETFs despite the price drop.
However, an analysis reveals that the market will turn bullish in Q3. Let’s examine the key metrics in detail.
Bitcoin Puell Multiple Predicts Bullish Momentum
In the current crisis, this bullish analysis is easy for investors looking for a Q3 entry. CryptoQuant’s analysis Using the Bitcoin Puell Multiple suggests a potential end to the current correction phase within the ongoing bull market. However, historically, this data reveals significant declines in the Puell Multiple, usually an indicator of strong price rallies, as seen during previous bull cycles in 2016 and 2020.
June 2024 saw a substantial capitulation from miners, with profitability plummeting 7.8% since the April halving event. Miners’ daily revenue dropped dramatically from $78 million to $26 million, underscoring market stress among miners.
Not over yet…
Many are quick to declare this bull market over, selling their long-term holdings in capitulation. However, a deep dive into on-chain data, compared to previous cycles, indicates that we are still in the early stages of this new bull cycle. But technically, cryptocurrency cycles start after the halving, with an average duration of over 500 days. Therefore, we are currently 79 days after the 2024 BTC halving. If we zoom out on the charts, there is still a long way to go in this bull cycle.
A buying opportunity?
Adding to the bullish sentiment, Santiment data shows a decline of 566,000 non-empty Bitcoin wallets since mid-June, reflecting liquidations by short-term holders amid market uncertainty. Such a drawdown, often seen at market bottoms, historically presents buying opportunities for patient investors.
Similarly, the 30-day and 365-day Bitcoin MVRV indicators are also currently in the negative zone, indicating the best time to buy Bitcoin. This perfect combination has in the past led to substantial returns for investors who entered the market during these periods.
Wait for the third trimester!
With multiple indicators aligning toward bullish sentiment, including the anticipated start of a bull run in Q3 2024 based on the Puell Multiple, Bitcoin appears poised for a potential price recovery. Investor caution remains advised amid ongoing market volatility and regulatory developments. So far, the Puell Multiple indicator has perfectly predicted BTC’s bottom, bear trap, and peak over the past three cycles.
Based on the Puell Multiple indicators, we are currently in a bear trap and can expect an upward movement from this level.
Read too: Are the top 5 cryptocurrencies poised for a bullish rally?
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
Fuente
Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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