Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Forecast as Weak US Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Hopes – Will BTC Go Up?
Last updated: May 10, 2024 04:52 EDT | 3 minutes reading
Bitcoin Price Prediction
Bitcoin (BTC) fell slightly by 0.20% to settle at $63,000, but maintains a bullish stance in the latest bitcoin price prediction. The rise in jobless claims to 231,000, the highest since August 2023, suggests a cooling in the US labor market, leading to early action by the Federal Reserve.
This could lead to rate reductions earlier than anticipated, influencing Bitcoin’s appeal as a non-traditional investment.
US jobs data sparks rate cut speculation – what’s next for BTC
The Department of Labor reported a notable increase in initial fees unemployment insurance claims for the week ending May 4reaching 231,000 – 22,000 more than the previous week and well above the Dow Jones estimate of 214,000.
This marks the highest level since August 26, 2023, signaling possible economic tensions and a cooling of the labor market that had previously shown resilience.
Initial unemployment insurance claims – Source: Tradingeconomics
Continuing claims also increased, rising by 17,000 to 1.78 million, while the four-week moving average of claims rose to 215,000. These numbers suggest a gradual economic slowdown, prompting discussions about potential early rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to stimulate growth.
Such a slowdown in the job market has historically been a catalyst for the price of Bitcoin as investors turn to non-traditional assets.
Non-agricultural payroll increases concern
Of april non-farm payroll data added to these concerns, showing a gain of just 175 thousand jobs, well below the 240 thousand expected. This was the smallest increase since October 2023. However, the unemployment rate remains stable at 3.9%, down from 4% since February 2022, indicating that the job market is not in crisis but may be returning to normal. .Analysts Christopher Rupkey and Robert Frick noted the volatility and a surprising increase in unemployment benefit claims, suggesting potential additional fluctuations in the job market. Officials at the Federal Reserve, whose goal is to maintain a 2% inflation rate, carefully examine these circumstances.
- The recent increase in unemployment benefit claims in the US suggests a potential economic slowdown.
- April’s modest employment gains and stable unemployment suggest market normalization.
- The Fed could cut rates sooner, possibly increasing investment in Bitcoin as lower rates reduce yields on fixed income assets.
As expectations grow that the Fed will ease monetary policy in response to the weakening labor market, possibly initiating rate cuts as early as September, Bitcoin could benefit. Lower interest rates make riskier assets like cryptocurrencies more attractive.
Bitcoin Price Prediction
(BTC) sees a small decline of 0.20% with the current trading price at $63,000, however, bitcoin price prediction still remains optimistic.
The pivot point at $61,011 sets the stage for determining directional moves, with immediate resistance seen at $64,851. If the bullish momentum prevails, subsequent resistance levels at $67,084 and $69,356 could be tested.
Bitcoin Price Prediction – Source: Tradingview
On the other hand, immediate support forms at $58,852, with further downside protection seen at $56,677 and $54,327. The RSI at 54 indicates a relatively neutral market stance, while the 50-day EMA at $62,375 provides underlying support near the $62,000 mark, suggesting balanced but cautious market sentiment.
A decisive move below $62,500 could trigger a significant selling trend, highlighting the importance of this threshold in BTC’s short-term price action.
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Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You can lose all your capital.
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Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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