Bitcoin
Bitcoin Looks Poised for a July Rally, But Several Things Could Go Wrong for BTC — Here’s How ⋆ ZyCrypto
Bitcoin (BTC) has had a tough end to June, threatening to fall below the $60,000 mark, but investors are looking for light at the end of the tunnel in July.
Despite the underlying optimism, several factors are holding back higher prices for the largest cryptocurrency, with several analysts predicting a drop to $50,000. Technical indicators suggest that investors may start taking profits based on the belief that the asset may have seen its biggest decline of the quarter.
They base their analysis on Bitcoin’s Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio, a metric used to track the gains and losses of Bitcoin’s movements relative to current prices. Since the beginning of May, the metric has risen from 1 to 1.03, indicating profit-taking by investors, but this type of action typically represents a healthy market overall rather than capitulation.
However, BTC’s net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) tells a bleaker story, with a reading of 0.54 seen as a telltale sign of a steep market correction. A look at BTC’s 24-hour chart indicates an attempt to break out of the bullish pennant, pointing to a potential decline in the asset’s price to $55K by early July.
Perhaps the biggest threat to BTC in July is the scheduled release of funds to Mt. Gox creditors after nearly a decade of negotiations. According to industry sources, up to 140,000 BTC worth more than US$9 billion will be transferred to creditors, in a move that could upset the delicate balance of the ecosystem.
There is widespread speculation that a portion of creditors will sell their assets after receiving payment to take profits, potentially reaping nearly 20,000% in profits since the 2014 Mt. Gox hack. Previous BTC payments to creditors by exchanges have negatively impacted asset prices, with Gemini users dumping their BTC en masse in May.
“Mt. Gox about to dump $9 billion worth of bitcoin and bitcoin cash into payments. Logical selling pressure is expected, potentially taking us below 60K,” pseudonymous Deken Kid said on X. “I would expect to stay above 55K, though.”
Not all is doom and gloom for BTC
Despite all the bumps that lie ahead for BTC, bulls are still rubbing their hands in glee at the prospects of a price rally before the end of July. While the rest of the market braces for a dip, several analysts are predicting an influx of retail and institutional investors at the $55,000 mark, capable of engineering a rally of their own.
“If that happens, it’s probably the best buying opportunity you’ll ever get,” Degen Kid said. “The correction that late buyers have been waiting for, the re-entry of the major local sellers.”
BTC is currently focused on reclaiming $60,000, staving off the specter of a sub-$55,000 valuation by early July, but the leading cryptocurrency has yet to face any major obstacles to test its resolve.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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