Bitcoin
Bitcoin is holding support and poised to make another record run, according to the charts
Bitcoin has been pulling back in recent weeks following the announcement that creditors of collapsed exchange Mt Gox will receive approximately $9 billion in bitcoin, and fears that supply will hit the market. That pullback has materialized, and according to our Elliott Wave analysis of the bitcoin chart, support has likely formed in the $59,000-$49,000 zone. If successfully defended, this sets up a third attempt to break through the formidable $65,000-$73,000 resistance zone. In fact, we just added a 2% stake in the new iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to our Tactical Alpha Growth portfolio at Inside Edge Capital. We are bullish and expect to see the underlying break out of all-time highs and push towards the $105,000-$109,000 target zone in 2024. Leaving aside the micro headwind of potential bitcoin supply, we have a potential macro tailwind that could help accelerate the rally. Looking at the 3-chart overlay below, you will find Bitcoin, Gold, and US 10-year yields since 2020. If you look closely at the overlay, you will notice two things on the chart that I find very useful as an equity investor to help gauge the macro environment. The first is that Gold and Bitcoin (blue and orange) have a very close positive correlation. ‘Heavy gold’ and ‘digital gold’ trading together?! Isn’t that like cats and dogs living together? We believe it has more to do with market dynamics, as both are currently inversely correlated to US bond yields, which is the second useful observation. If you look closely at the chart, you will see that the black-traded US 10-year yield has a loose inverse correlation to Bitcoin and Gold. As inflation is expected to be with us for longer than most think and the Fed is unlikely to ease rates any time soon, recent market activity has shown us that this is negatively impacting Bitcoin and Gold. Persistent inflation and higher rates are also negatively impacting equity markets. Putting it all together, higher rates have a negative impact on all three; bitcoin, gold, and the stock market, which have all shown a positive relationship in recent months. Incredibly, if you are bullish on the stock market, you want both bitcoin and gold to rally, which should see lower interest rates in the US as the first Fed rate hike approaches. As far as bitcoin’s rally against gold from the 2022 lows, there is no competition. Gold is up +45% compared to bitcoin’s +280% rally. To further underline bitcoin’s outperformance, take a look at a weekly bitcoin/gold ratio chart since 2020. Using the same school of market analysis, we see that bitcoin/gold has pulled back to support (gold outperformed bitcoin on the Mt Gox events), but is possibly finding support ready to reassert its dominance over gold. In short, as a very bullish stock market investor, I would like to see bitcoin and gold rally along with lower U.S. yields. But ideally, we see gains in bitcoin (and our new IBIT position) far outpacing our holdings of our gold mining stocks. – Todd Gordon, Founder of Inside Edge Capital, LLC DISCLOSURES: (Gordon owns IBIT personally and through his wealth management firm Inside Edge Capital. Charts shown are MotiveWave) All opinions expressed by CNBC Pro contributors are their own and do not reflect the views of CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, its parent company or affiliates, and may have previously been disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or otherwise. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSITUTE FINANCIAL, INVESTMENT, TAX OR LEGAL ADVICE OR A RECOMMENDATION TO PURCHASE ANY SECURITY OR OTHER FINANCIAL ASSET. THE CONTENT IS GENERAL IN NATURE AND DOES NOT REFLECT ANY INDIVIDUAL’S UNIQUE PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES. THE ABOVE CONTENT MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR PARTICULAR CIRCUMSTANCES. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISION, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR. Click here for full disclaimer.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
Fuente
Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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