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Bitcoin is falling — how low will it go?

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin is falling — how low will it go?

Bitcoin is falling, but how far can it go?

The leading cryptocurrency has fallen more than 5.7% in the past week. Today, it has fallen below $57,000 as several wallets linked to the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox made small transactions. Persistent selling by the German government, now in motion another $75 million in Bitcoin for the stock markets, it also apparently scared off investors.

“The short-term outlook is somewhat pessimistic, but not extremely pessimistic,” said Basile Maire, co-founder of decentralized exchange D8X and former bank treasury specialist, said Decipher.

Macroeconomic conditions and the uncertainty clouds US elections is likely also playing a role in the current bearish sentiment. The Federal Reserve said yesterday that while inflation in the US market may be easing, it still remains well above the target rate, which could impact the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates this year.

The Fed’s extension of interest rate cuts is seen as bearish for risk assets such as Bitcoinas investors are generally less likely to move their dollars around the market under high interest rates. Still, some analysts see signs that the pain may be short-lived.

Maire says the Bitcoin options market, based on July expiries, shows that few market participants believe the price of Bitcoin will fall below $50,000 this month. Options “cluster between $50,000 and $60,000, with more volume near $60,000,” Maire explained.

This means that those who open options contracts, which are used to bet on the future price of Bitcoin, believe that Bitcoin is more likely to end the month near $60,000 than anywhere else. Other analysts have a different view.

“Bitcoin is more likely to fall to $51,500 than rise to $65,800,” said Alex Kuptsikevich, the FxPro senior market analyst, said Decipher. Kuptsikevich identified the $50,000 market as the “February consolidation area,” i.e. the price point where most Bitcoin purchases were made in February. He believes this could be Bitcoin’s next stop.

Digital asset firm 10x Research echoed the sentiment, suggesting that $60,000 was a key level for Bitcoin miners and buyers of Bitcoin spot ETFs. “Only ill-informed traders are willing to buy here. Breaking this support could trigger a sharp decline to the low $50,000s,” a report from the firm stated.

“How far BTC can go will largely depend on continued selling by large entities,” Justin d’Anethan, head of business development for APAC for the market maker Rock keycounted Decipher. “We may see some support in the lower $50,000 range, when Bitcoin was stuck between $50,000 and $52,000 in February.”

Some of the biggest investments in Bitcoin now come from ETFs following their approval in January. But in the world of traditional finance, Bitcoin sticks out like a sore thumb.

“Crypto ETFs belong to the most volatile investments in a traditional investment portfolio, which consists of bonds, diversified stocks, and commodities,” Maire said. “Therefore, whenever portfolio managers need to sell the riskiest assets, crypto is a likely candidate.”

While the short term may be bleak, analysts are more optimistic in the medium term.

“Despite the correction, the options market is still heavily biased towards BTC growth, as evidenced by the strong interest in long-term options in the $100,000 to $120,000 strike,” Kuptsikevich said. “According to Capital QCPthis points to the likelihood of a resumption of the rally by the end of the year.”

In other words, just hold on tight a little longer. And while this was certainly a winning strategy for early Bitcoin buyers, anyone who bought at the peak last March is certainly feeling the pain.

The opinions and views expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment or other advice.

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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