Bitcoin
Bitcoin Investors See Sideways Trading in June, With Focus Turning to Washington
Markets are approaching the official start of summer, but bitcoin could languish in June. The top cryptocurrency jumped 13% in May, according to Coin Metrics, its eighth monthly gain in the past nine months and its best month since February, when it soared 44%. This is due to last week’s ether-led rally ahead of the SEC’s approval of a rule change allowing ether ETFs in the US, when ether rose 20% in two days. Now, aspiring Ethereum ETF sponsors need to complete their S-1 registration forms for the individual funds. Until then, crypto doesn’t have a clear catalyst, with bitcoin ETFs and the halving in the rearview window. “Once these new products are fully approved by the SEC, possibly as early as the end of June, you can expect this to act as a catalyst for ether and the broader altcoin space, with bitcoin along for the ride,” said Antoni Trenchev. , co-founder of cryptocurrency exchange Nexo. BTC.CM=3M mountain Bitcoin has traded in a tight range since pulling back from its March record high usually precede wild moves – just look at the last halving year in 2020, when Bitcoin was stuck for five months before exploding upwards,” Trenchev added. Bitcoin has added $5,400 or 8.7% in the last three. months. June looks precarious for bitcoin – the cryptocurrency has an average monthly return of just 0.25% over the past 10 years, according to CoinGlass. Next month, investors will be paying close attention to the Federal Reserve’s next monetary policy meeting on June 11 and 12, especially after Friday’s reading of the central bank’s preferred inflation gauge the personal consumption expenditures price index. increased 0.2% in April, as expected. As a result, “bitcoin may continue to fluctuate within the descending channel,” said Yuya Hasegawa, crypto market analyst at Japanese bitcoin exchange Bitbank. Furthermore, “Bitcoin could quickly give up about half of its gains over the past two weeks and fall to around $65,000.” Fed policy aside, Washington “will continue to be the center of the world for crypto in June” with investors listening closely to messages from the US presidential campaign after the SEC’s adoption of ether ETFs highlighted changing fortunes crypto policy, Trenchev said. “The last month has witnessed the unlikely and unlikely sight of both sides of the US political divide warming up on crypto ahead of the US elections,” said Trenchev. “Witnessing the narrative continue to unfold in June will be a fascinating sport and will have huge implications for the long-term regulation of space.” Bitcoin miners face difficulties after halving. Elsewhere, Bitcoin’s price could come under some pressure from miner sales. Hasegawa said the average time it takes miners to find and process a new block is increasing, while the network’s hash rate – the combined computing power required by miners to mine bitcoin and process network transactions – is decreasing. This suggests that its profitability is weakening as its ability to mine new coins decreases. “This indicates that the profitability of bitcoin mining is decreasing and miners are struggling to mine,” Hasegawa said. “If the price continues to fall, they may have to sell their bitcoin holdings to [maintain] cash flow, which could cause a vicious cycle.” Market watchers predicted this would happen after the bitcoin halving in April, which cut off an important source of revenue – the block reward – for bitcoin miners. Julio Moreno , head of research at CryptoQuant, attributes its current struggle to a decline in transaction fees following the halving. That said, there has not yet been heavy selling by miners, he said.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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