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Bitcoin Falls Out of Step With US Stocks, What This Could Mean for Crypto Market

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Bitcoin Falls Out of Step With US Stocks, What This Could Mean for Crypto Market

Recent data shows that Bitcoin has completely shut down US Stocks. This is significant considering how the leading cryptocurrency and these stocks have had a positive correlation before, which has undoubtedly positively impacted Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin has no correlation with US stocks

Data in IntoTheBlock market intelligence platform shows that Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 has dropped to -0.78 and -0.83, respectively. This means that Bitcoin and these assets have a strong negative correlation, with their prices tending to move in opposite directions.

Bitcoin ActionsSource: IntoTheBlock

In fact, this has been the case for quite some time now, as the flagship cryptocurrency has been in a major downtrend for quite some time now. On the other hand, the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 have continued to enjoy considerable rallies. Data from IntoTheBlock shows that the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are up over 7% and 4% in the last monthwhile Bitcoin fell more than 15%.

A Bloomberg report also highlighted the “collapse” correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks and attributed this decline to the massive selling pressure that the leading cryptocurrency is facing. Joshua Lim, co-founder of trading firm Arbelos Markets, told Bloomberg that this selling pressure caused by companies like German government “put a cap” on Bitcoin’s appreciation while these US stocks are trading at all-time highs.

Data from IntoTheBlock shows that it is indeed this selling pressure that has caused Bitcoin to outperform these US stocks. At the beginning of June, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500 stood at 0.86 and 0.73, respectively. However, this strong positive correlation began to decline once Bitcoin miners began unloading a significant amount of their holdings. Bitcoinist reported that these miners sold more than 30,000 BTC in June.

Bitcoin also witnessed an increase in selling pressure in late June, thanks to the German governmentwhich began offloading some of the seized bitcoins from the pirated film Movie2k. This selling pressure did not let up as the German government continued its sales spree this month.

Moment of Truth for BTC and the Stock Market

Bitcoin and US stocks will be tested again when the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is released on July 11. The long-awaited report is expected to show that inflation in the country is cooling down, further strengthening the case for interest rate cuts. Such a development is undoubtedly bullish for these assets, especially Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.

In the short term, positive inflation data is expected to trigger a recovery in the price of Bitcoin, which is currently trying to recover $60,000 as support. Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett warned that Bitcoin needs to stay above $57,800 or risk falling to as low as $50,000.

Bitcoin Price Chart from Tradingview.comBTC Fails to Hold $59,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com

Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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