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Bitcoin Could Surge If US Recession Is Worse Than Projected, Analyst Says

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Bitcoin Could Surge If US Recession Is Worse Than Projected, Analyst Says

In a confluence of economic factors, the United States appears to be heading for a deeper-than-expected recession, which could force the Federal Reserve to cut rates, according to BRN analyst Valentin Fournier.

This scenario, while bleak for the broader economy, has the potential for a significant rally in Bitcoin, taking the cryptocurrency beyond previous highs, he wrote in a BRN research note shared with Decrypt.

At the time of writing this Bitcoin Price is trading at $58,120, down about 1.1% over the past 24 hours. It fell to a 24-hour low of $57,072 during early Asian trading, according to data from Coingecko.

Despite this recent crisis, Fournier is optimistic about the future of Bitcoin.

“Bitcoin has yet to fully break out of its downtrend, as it underwent a slight correction during the US trading session — a recurring pattern in recent weeks,” Fournier said.

Fournier highlighted that the comments of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellwho made his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress this week, said the Fed needs to have “greater confidence” that inflation is moving toward 2% before it begins cutting rates.

“Incoming data for the first quarter of this year did not support much higher confidence,” Powell said during his testimony on Tuesday. “The most recent inflation readings, however, showed some modest progress, and more good data would strengthen our confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

This cautious stance from the Fed suggests that rate cuts are not imminent and will be executed carefully.

Other macroeconomic indicators are also painting a bleak picture, Fournier added, highlighting the recent Services Purchasing Managers Index and unemployment data.

The Services PMI — a metric reported monthly by the Institute for Supply Management — came in at 48.8% in June, marking a 5% drop since May. The ISM noted that this is the third consecutive time the Services PMI has fallen in 49 months.

About that, rising unemployment levels in the US indicate that the U.S. may face a more severe recession than expected. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics updated the unemployment rate last week, it had risen slightly to 4.1% in June from 4% in May.

These developments could lead to faster-than-expected interest rate cuts and increased government spending, potentially injecting liquidity into the market.

Despite — and in some ways, because of — the current economic crisis, Fournier remains bullish on Bitcoin.

“While we still have a long way to go, the Fed’s cautious approach indicates that they will not adopt a dovish stance until rate cuts are imminent,” he said.

The German government selling pressure about Bitcoin cooled downand other factors are lining up to potentially increase the value of Bitcoin.

Upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers and the possibility of a $1 billion short squeeze could push Bitcoin back towards the $60,000 mark, Fournier wrote.

“Bitcoin has now digested the intense sell-off from the German government,” he added. “It could continue to push higher after the CPI release and squeeze up to $1 billion in shorts below the $60,000 mark.”

While some investors are taking profits after the recent rally, the overall sentiment among analysts remains positive.

“We remain bullish on cryptocurrencies and expect them to vastly outperform traditional equities in the coming months,” Fournier said.

Edited by Stacy Elliott.

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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