Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) Price Surges After June CPI Turns Negative
Inflation continued to ease in June, according to the government’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Thursday morning, with the June rate coming in at a negative 0.1% pace, versus forecasts for a 0.1% gain and May’s 0.0% reading.
On a year-on-year basis, the CPI was 3.0% higher than expectations of 3.1% and 3.3% in May.
Core CPI – which strips out food and energy costs – was also better than expected, rising 0.1% in June, versus expectations of 0.2% and 0.2% in May. Year-over-year Core CPI rose 3.3%, versus forecasts of 3.4% and 3.4% in June.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) jumped to $59,100 in the minutes following the report, an increase of nearly 2% in the past 24 hours.
A check of traditional markets finds U.S. stock index futures higher, with the 10-year Treasury yield down nine basis points to 4.20%. Gold is 1% higher at $2,404 an ounce.
Ahead of Thursday morning’s report, market participants were increasingly closing in on the idea that the U.S. Federal Reserve would finally cut its benchmark federal funds rate at its mid-September meeting. CME FedWatch Tool I put the odds of this happening at over 70% versus less than 50% just a month ago. It was a notion that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made no effort to confirm or deny in two days of congressional testimony earlier this week.
In that testimony, Powell acknowledged a weakening labor market and that the Fed is becoming increasingly focused on downside risks to the economy. However, he reiterated — as he and other Fed officials have been doing for weeks, if not months — that the central bank wants continued confirmation that inflation is returning to its 2% target before rate cuts can be seriously considered.
Bitcoin has been under considerable pressure in recent weeks since hitting an all-time high above $73,500 at the end of Q1. Q2 saw a slowdown in inflows and even considerable net outflows for U.S.-based spot ETFs. Then, in late June and early July, a flood of supply from the sale of government holdings and the return of Mt. Gox tokens sent the price crashing below $54,000 at one point, nearly 27% below that record high.
Bitcoin’s decline may be even more frustrating for bulls given that other competing risk assets — namely U.S. stocks — have continued to climb higher over the summer. Just yesterday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq completed their seventh consecutive day of advances, setting new records for each index.
On the heels of these latest inflation numbers, the odds of a September rate cut have risen to 87%, and the odds of two or more rate cuts by the Fed’s November meeting have jumped to nearly 50%. In parallel, the US dollar index has fallen by nearly 1%, a very significant move for this indicator. Whether this will become the catalyst for a new run higher for bitcoin remains to be seen.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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