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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drops Below 200-Day Average; Bull Market Trendline in Focus

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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Drops Below 200-Day Average; Bull Market Trendline in Focus

Bitcoins (BTC) The decline gained momentum as the largest cryptocurrency fell for the third consecutive day, falling below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), a good indicator of long-term price trends in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

The cryptocurrency fell below the mid-$58,492 level during European trading on Thursday to below $57,300, a price last seen on May 2, according to data from charting platform TradingView.

Markets that consistently trade below the 200-day average are considered to be in a bearish trend, while those that trade above the average are considered bullish. BTC surged above the 200-day SMA in October, when the average value was $28,000. The breakout — fueled by expectations of a spot bitcoin ETF in the US — paved the way for a rally to record highs above $70,000 in March.

One factor in bitcoin’s price action is U.S. interest rates. As rates fall, the allure of riskier investments like cryptocurrencies increases. Federal Reserve meeting minutes released Wednesday showed that policymakers led by Chairman Jerome Powell are unwilling to cut rates until more data emerges to give them greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward their 2% target. That could happen as early as tomorrow, when the Labor Department releases its nonfarm payrolls figures for June.

“We believe Jerome Powell’s hawkish comments and ongoing selling pressure will likely push BTC towards 52,000,” Valentin Fournier, digital asset analyst at consulting firm brn, said in an email. “However, we recommend viewing this as a buying opportunity as improving regulations around cryptocurrencies and falling inflation in the U.S. are yet to be fully priced in and will likely provide a strong boost once investors shift focus to a longer-term view.”

The selloff could lose steam if payroll data shows the labor market weakened in June. The number is forecast to show payrolls rose by 195,000, a notable slowdown from 272,000 the previous month, according to FXStreet. The unemployment rate is expected to have held steady at 4.0%, while average hourly earnings are expected to have slowed to 3.9% from 4.1% year over year.

The bull market progression can be identified by an ascending trendline connecting the October and January lows. BTC’s latest break below the 200-day line has put the focus on the bull market trendline support at $57,590.

A close (midnight UTC) below this level could lead to further selling and falling prices, as traders often use trendline breaks as indicators to make trading decisions.

Fournier is not alone in seeing further declines. According to Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, prices could fall as low as $51,500 in the near term.

“From the current position, a 12% drop to $51.5K (February consolidation area) is more likely than the same growth to $65.8K (50-day moving average),” Kuptsikevich said in an email.

UPDATE (July 4, 9:45 UTC): Adds interest rate, jobs report starting in fourth paragraph, analyst quote in fourth, possible decline in last two paragraphs.

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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