Bitcoin
Analyst Says Bitcoin’s $71,000 Move Is Only Halfway Through, Here’s Why
An analyst explained how Bitcoin’s current surge appears to have reached the halfway point if this indicator passes.
Bitcoin VWAP Oscillator Suggests BTC Only Halving Recovery
In a new publish on X, analyst Willy Woo posted an update on how Bitcoin Volume Weighted Average Price Oscillator (VWAP) it’s looking like after the last rally.
O VWAP is an indicator that, as its full form suggests, calculates an average price for the cryptocurrency based not only on changes in price throughout the day, but also on the volume that has been traded at those prices.
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Typically, this volume is measured using spot volume data provided by centralized exchanges. Still, in the case of Bitcoin, the blockchain is available for anyone to explore, so the on-chain volume is used to calculate VWAP.
The VWAP Oscillator, which is the real metric of interest here, takes the relationship between the cryptocurrency’s spot price and VWAP and represents it as an oscillator around zero.
Earlier this month, Woo pointed out how Bitcoin’s VWAP oscillator was forming a bullish divergence for the asset.
What the VWAP oscillator looked like at the beginning of the month | Source: @woonomic on X
As visible from the chart, the Bitcoin VWAP oscillator rose within the negative territory after forming an apparent bottom at that time. At the same time, the price of cryptocurrency was falling.
In the past, such a setup has proven to be bullish for the coin, and the resulting bullish momentum usually lasts until the VWAP oscillator reaches positive territory. Thus, the analyst noted that the currency had a lot of space to circulate at that time.
Since then, the price has staged a recovery, potentially suggesting that the bullish divergence may be bearing fruit. As Woo pointed out, the indicator returned to the neutral mark after this run.
It appears the metric value is entering positive territory | Source: @woonomic on X
Based on the fact that tops in the past have occurred after metric peaks in positive territory and based on the scale of these peaks typically, the analyst concludes: “this Bitcoin move is now halfway there.”
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As for how things could play out next, the analyst says,
Consolidation under the all-time high needs to happen for a while, then we will see if the second leg gives us escape velocity to new highs that will open the floodgates.
Woo also shared a “risk signal” for Bitcoin that shows where the asset stands when looking at the bigger picture.
BTC risk signal data in recent years | Source: @woonomic on X
BTC may be in that part of the cycle where risk starts to increase as the price reacts violently to capital contributions. “That’s where most of the quick wins happen,” notes the analyst.
BTC Price
Bitcoin recovered above $71,000 earlier in the day, but the asset appears to have suffered a pullback since then as it is now back below $70,000.
The asset’s price appears to have soared in the last day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView
Featured image from Shutterstock.com, woocarts.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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