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Analyst predicts $44,000 drop on break of 200 daily EMA

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Analyst predicts $44,000 drop on break of 200 daily EMA

The cryptocurrency market witnessed a significant setback as the price of Bitcoin plunged below the $58,000 level. This downward movement raised concerns among bullish investors, suggesting a potential continuation of the downtrend towards the $44,000 support level.

Bitcoin’s failure to consolidate above and retest its all-time high (ATH) of $73,700 reached in March has resulted in a retraction of more than 20% in the monthly term.

Bitcoin Price at Risk

Cryptocurrency analyst “Blockchaineddbb” provided a remarkable assessment of the situation. According to for analysis, a daily close below the 200 daily exponential moving average (EMA), currently positioned at $58,000, indicates a strong probability of Bitcoin price falling to $44,000.

The analyst warns against expecting a recovery after the daily close below the 200 daily EMA, emphasizing the historical significance of such a breach.

Blockchaineddbb analysis reveals the historical impact of losing the daily 200 EMA. Each time Bitcoin suffered such a loss, its price dropped by an average of 30%, with losses ranging from 8% to 50%.

The breakout of the 200 daily EMA means that Bitcoin is entering an unsafe territory, raising investor concerns. To mitigate potential losses, the analyst suggests considering an exit point before the expected decline to $50,000, which is the next significant support level.

Navigating the bearish storm

Blockchaineddbb provides average support levels to consider during the bearish sentiment for those who choose to keep their positions.

These levels are estimated at $50,000, $48,000 and $44,000, with the latter being the worst-case scenario. Long-term holders are advised to stick to their planned averaging strategy, which involves accumulating positions on specific dates such as June 22, September 22 and December 22.

According to the analyst, the exit target price remains at $75,000, with expectations of reaching that milestone by December.

Considering several factors such as the expected September dump, the Mt. Gox liquidation deadline, and the upcoming elections, the analyst suggested that the prevailing rate bearish sentiment will persist until December.

Ultimately, if the current bearish sentiment continues, altcoins are expected suffer losses until the end of the year. It is worth noting that a potential change in this scenario would only occur if Bitcoin managed to close above the 200 Daily EMA. However, the probability of this happening seems low.

Bitcoin PriceThe daily chart shows that the BTC price is in a downward trend. Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com

Bitcoin price is currently at $56,435, just below the critical $58,000 EMA, after falling to $53,500 in the early trading hours on Friday.

Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

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We are the editorial team of Altcoin Updates, where seriousness meets clarity in cryptocurrency analysis. With a robust team of finance and blockchain technology experts, we are dedicated to meticulously exploring complex crypto markets with detailed assessments and an unbiased approach. Our mission is to democratize access to knowledge of emerging financial technologies, ensuring they are understandable and accessible to all. In every article on Altcoin Updates, we strive to provide content that not only educates, but also empowers our readers, facilitating their integration into the financial digital age.

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Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens

Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.

Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.

In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.

On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.

The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.

“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.

Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.

The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.

“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.

That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.

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Bitcoin

How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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How systematic approaches reduce investor risk

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.

July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.

Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.

(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)

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Bitcoin

India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Amitoj Singh

“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

AltcoinUpdates Staff

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets

Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.

Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.

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