Bitcoin
A warning of an imminent stock market ‘correction’ suddenly flashed red — as Nvidia, Apple and Tesla retreated
Updated 11/7 below. This post was originally published on July 10th
Stock markets are on the rise after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell fanned the flames of interest rate cut hopes in September.right after issuing a “critical” warning.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs, following in the footsteps of the Dow, which peaked in May. despite new debt spiral fears unsettling traders.
Now, as uncertainty looms over the White HouseAn analyst has highlighted a surprising warning light in the stock market that has started flashing red.
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell helped boost stock markets, with the S&P 500, the … [+] Nasdaq and Dow Jones hit new all-time highs.
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The recent rout in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, which has wiped $500 billion from the market combined in just over a month, could be about to trigger “an imminent summer correction for the S&P 500,” said Barry Bannister, managing director and chief equity strategist at Stifel. counted Market observation.
Update 11/7: The S&P 500 and indexes fell sharply on Thursday, posting their worst performance since late April, while recent big tech winners — including Nvidia, Apple and Tesla — retreated.
The pullback came after the latest inflation data accelerated expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, with interest rate futures now showing traders see a more than 90% chance the Fed will cut rates by its September meeting, up from about 74% on Wednesday, according to CME Group’s Fedwatch.
“Clearly, the continued downward trend in headline inflation will lend weight to the case for a Fed rate cut, as is widely expected by markets in the fourth quarter of this year,” Adrian Li, managing director at corporate finance consultancy Centrus, said in emailed comments.
“The exact timing of a rate cut remains uncertain, and may ultimately depend on the Fed’s balance of inflation risks versus the perceived risk of higher rates to the continued strength of the U.S. economy. All eyes will now turn to any further indications on the direction of travel ahead of the rate decision later in the month, with the next unemployment and nonfarm payrolls rates not due until early August.”
Bannister highlighted bitcoin’s correlation with stock markets, and specifically the tech-heavy Nasdaq, in recent years.
“It’s the availability of cheap liquidity from the Fed that drives the price of bitcoin,” Bannister said. “Every dovish pivot over the past 13 years has marked a sharp rise in bitcoin, and bitcoin is a non-interest-bearing asset that thrives on lower interest rates and available liquidity” — much like stock markets.
In his second day of testimony before Congress this week, Fed Chairman Powell said he had “some confidence” that inflation was falling but was not ready to declare the war on inflation won.
“Bitcoin has been a good leading indicator for the Nasdaq-100 over the years,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, wrote in a note ahead of the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow rally this week.
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The price of bitcoin has fallen sharply in recent weeks, fueling fears that stock markets could follow suit… [+] lower, even as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow hit all-time highs.
Forbes Digital Assets
For now, the momentum is in stocks as investors continue to bet on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
“Growing confidence in U.S. rate cuts kept the mood upbeat and gains broad-based,” Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at brokerage AJ Bell, said in emailed comments.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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