Bitcoin
Bitcoin and the bankruptcy of FTX
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – AUGUST 11: Former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried arrives for a bail hearing in… [+] Manhattan Federal Court on August 11, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
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Let me share the background story and mechanics of Bitcoin and FTX.
Short selling Bitcoin is not possible in the US due to securities regulations. This is one aspect of securities law that has left me somewhat perplexed. Overall, shorting Bitcoin is the worst financial decision for any investor, given that Bitcoin is the best performing asset of the last decade. At the same time, individuals must have the ability to express any opinion they wish in the financial markets. Therefore, the current ban on selling Bitcoin in the US is a mistake.
It is permitted to sell stocks in the US as accredited investors can do so through their brokerage accounts. As Bitcoin matures as an asset class, regulation will change and eventually Fidelity will allow long and short positions. But we’re not there yet. Outside the US, it is possible to sell Bitcoin short. This explains why exchanges like FTX were domiciled in the Bahamas. The exchange handles all the details of handling short positions on the back end, similar to how stock exchanges today handle stock lending, where short sellers borrow shares and buy them back later.
Bankruptcy and asset freeze
When FTX collapsed, all of its depositors lost access to their funds. My opinion is that FTX depositors got what they paid for. They did not exercise the necessary due diligence before holding their funds on a cryptocurrency exchange. Moving your Bitcoins to cold storage would have avoided all the problems with freezing FTX assets. So the big takeaway here is that Bitcoin fixes this natively. By its very design, Bitcoin has built-in encryption and security that ensures the safety of funds. This is the main point.
The recovery
When FTX filed for bankruptcy, all assets were dollarized. This means that the bankruptcy estate converted the value of all deposits to their dollar value at the time of the petition. Therefore, if John Doe had a bitcoin valued at $20,000 at the time of bankruptcy, the estate would file its claim as $20,000 rather than 1 BTC. This is the amount that the estate will seek to recover for John Doe, knowing that the assets it uses for this recovery are still bitcoin. Two things happened since the bankruptcy filing that caused the value of the bankruptcy estate to increase.
First, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has invested in a number of ventures outside of cryptocurrency. In fact, that was the problem: he took deposits from customers and made all kinds of investments without their consent. Most of these investments were worthless, but he invested $500 million in Anthropic, a generative AI startup. This is a huge investment for a startup and it has paid off as this startup is now worth several times the initial investment. In this strange turn of events, generative AI saved FTX from collapse.
Second, the value of bitcoin (and many other cryptocurrencies) has increased since the time of the bankruptcy filing. Depending on when you purchased, bitcoin increased 2 to 3 times from the date of bankruptcy. And so the property is now worth more and is therefore able to recoup its original depositors.
There’s an interesting wrinkle here. Ownership subsidizes returns between different cryptocurrencies. Since you pay in dollars, your obligation is only to the dollar value of the initial shares. So in John Doe’s example, the estate owes him $20,000, not one Bitcoin. If that Bitcoin doubles to $40,000, then the equity can use the excess profits to cover the losses of other depositors who invested in the worst-performing cryptocurrencies. This peculiarity of the bankruptcy code allows strong currencies to subsidize weaker ones.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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