Bitcoin
This is when BTC price could rise to $150K according to Bitcoin halving cycles: Peter Brandt
In a recent analysis, renowned crypto trader Peter Brandt predicted that bitcoin’s current bull run could see the cryptocurrency peak between $130,000 and $150,000 in late August to early September 2025.
Brandt’s projection is based on historical patterns following previous BTC halving events.
Bitcoin Bull Run Could Hit $130K-$150K
April 20th reduce by half, a major event encoded in the Bitcoin protocol that occurs approximately every four years, cuts mining rewards in half. According to Brandt, these events have historically played a large role in shaping the market’s bull cycles.
In his June 2 report, he detailed how previous halving dates “represented near-perfect symmetry in previous bull market cycles.”
Specifically, he noted that the number of weeks from the start of each bull market cycle, typically marked by a significant low following a decline of more than 75%, to the halving dates is nearly equal to the number of weeks since the halving dates until after the bull market highs.
Analyzing past patterns, Brandt pointed to Bitcoin’s last bull market, which began about 16 months before the halving on May 11, 2020, and ended about 18 months later. This pattern aligns with previous cycles following the July 9, 2016, and November 28, 2012 halvings.
“If this streak continues, the next rally in the bull market cycle is expected to occur in late August or early September 2025,” Brandt added. He designed a potential rally in the $130,000 to $150,000 range, noting that while no method of analysis is infallible, previous highs have corresponded well with an inverted parabolic curve.
Brandt’s analysis points to December 17, 2022 as the start of the current bull market, with bitcoin trading at around $16,800 at that time. Since then, BTC has risen over 300%, reaching an all-time high of $73,800 on March 14.
Peter Brandt warns of potential ‘exponential decay’
However, Brandt also offered a note of caution. He acknowledged the 25% probability that Bitcoin has already reached the peak of the bull market, as each cycle’s gains are diminishing when compared to the previous one. He also warned that if bitcoin fails to surpass its previous high and falls below $55,000, it could mean an “exponential decline” in its market value.
In a previous blog post, Brandt highlighted that about 80% of the exponential momentum from each of BTC’s last four bull cycles has been reduced. Looking to the future, he predicted exponential growth of approximately 4.5 times the current value.
While acknowledging the halving’s potential to positively influence the value of bitcoin, Brandt emphasized the importance of traders carefully watching for signs of exponential decay.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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