Bitcoin
Bitcoin miners face a wave of forced sales, says research firm
- Bitcoin’s April halving could force cryptocurrency miners to sell some tokens, Kaiko Research reported.
- The event left miners with fewer rewards, while operating costs remain high.
- These companies have not yet had to mine their bitcoin stocks thanks to high transaction fees, but that could change.
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Markets have long viewed bitcoin’s recent halving as a major price increase, but it could bring a wave of selling in one corner of the sector, according to Kaiko Search.
The April halving is a pre-coded event in which the amount of bitcoin rewarded to cryptocurrency miners is halved. Last month’s halving was the fourth in 12 years and reduced daily token production from 900 to 450, Bloomberg reported.
While this dramatic decrease in supply can increase the price of the token, it also adds considerable costs to the miner’s operations.
Mining companies only receive bitcoin when they successfully complete a blockchain transaction, which is a resource-intensive process — with less bitcoin received to cover costs, halving tends to be a sell-off event for miners, Kaiko wrote.
Until now, this has not happened, as companies have relied on high transaction fees to obtain funding – this is bitcoin given to miners for their service in confirming transactions. According to Bloomberg, rates rose amid an explosion of meme coin creation following the halving.
In one example, transaction fees accounted for 16% of the bitcoin received by Marathon Digital in April, compared to 4.5% in March, Kaiko said, adding that “the recent decline in fees could lead to selling pressure from miners.” .
Miners are often known for accumulating bitcoin treasures without selling, which analysts have previously pointed to as another supply constraint that drives up prices.
“For example, Marathon Digital holds 17,631 BTC worth just over $1.1 billion, while Riot Platforms holds another 8,872 BTC worth over $500 million,” Kaiko wrote. “If miners were forced to sell even a fraction of their holdings over the next month, it would have a negative impact on the markets.
Although Kaiko did not describe how this could impact the price of bitcoin, analyst Peter Brandt separately argued that bitcoin could fall to mid-$30,000 in the post-halving environment.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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