Bitcoin
Why Pantera Capital Sees Bitcoin Rising to $114,000 by 2025 – DL News
- Pantera Capital outlines its reasoning behind a post-halving prediction for Bitcoin.
- The crypto hedge fund used a market model based on Bitcoin supply to analyze its estimate.
Pantera Capital joined a growing number of finance professionals this year in predicting a heady price for Bitcoin now that the halving is over.
Crypto hedge fund rose by one previous price prediction held a year and a half ago, saying Bitcoin could rise to as high as $114,000 by August 2025.
The forecast reflects the industry’s growing optimism, even amid challenges such as concerns about inflation, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy and the escalating crisis in the Middle East.
In your 100th letter For investors, Pantera has restarted its November 2022 analysis of Bitcoin’s past performance before and after its recent halving.
Using what is known as a stock-to-flow model, Pantera evaluated the supply of Bitcoin relative to the flow of new production, which is scheduled to be reduced by 50% every four years in halving events.
Changes in the ratio, or the difference between supply and the flow of new production, are particularly sensitive to halving. In the past, the price of Bitcoin rose up to 93 times.
By analyzing recoveries before and after the halving, the company found that, on average, prices tend to peak after 2.6 years. That would put current projections at August of next year.
While not an exact science, the stock-to-flow model has been a popular tool in the crypto industry as a means of analyzing the true value of Bitcoin.
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Exceeding gold
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity, said in February that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could reach a valuation of US$1.5 trillionexceeding that of gold by US$500 billion.
He used a variation of the model to show Bitcoin’s scarcity and value proposition compared to gold.
Pantera joins others in making six-figure predictions for Bitcoin, including research firm Bernstein’s $150,000 punt in mid-2025.
Skybridge Capital Founder Anthony Scaramucci Sees $170,000 or higher next year, while Thomas Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors also said it could reach $150,000 in 2024 and $500,000 over the next five years.
Crypto Market Movers
- Bitcoin fell 2% to $61,000 in the last 24 hours.
- Ethereum fell 0.6% to $2,970.
What are we reading
Sebastian Sinclair is a market correspondent for DL News. Have a tip? Contact Seb at sebastian@dlnews.com.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
Fuente
Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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