Bitcoin
JPMorgan says crypto sell-offs will end and Bitcoin bull market will begin. Here’s when
American financial multinational JP Morgan maintained an optimistic stance regarding the Bitcoin Price Outlook despite recent downward trends. The bank announced the timeline for completion of the BTC liquidations in progresspredicting a subsequent recovery in the market.
JP Morgan Predicts Bitcoin Market Recovery in August
In a research report on Wednesday, JP Morgan suggested that BTC liquidations are likely to ease in July, predicting the start of a strong bull market as the bearish trends caused by the sell-offs subside. Although the bank believes that a market recovery is imminentis also skeptical about the sustainability of high Bitcoin inflows in its year-to-date flow into crypto assets.
For one, JP Morgan revised and grossly reduced its previous year-to-date net crypto inflow from $12 billion to $8 billion. So far this year, Spot Bitcoin ETFs have been the main driver of substantial inflows into the cryptocurrency market.
JP Morgan’s skepticism also stems from Bitcoin’s high price relative to its production cost and the gold price. A cryptocurrency analyst at the bank, Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, suggested that the reduction in the bank’s estimated net inflow year-to-date was also due to the recent decline in Bitcoin reserves between exchanges.
O decline in Bitcoin reserves over the past month is believed to be a result of ongoing selling pressures and widespread BTC liquidations executed by Mt Gox Creditors and the German government. As mentioned earlier, JP Morgan has predicted that this BTC sell-off will officially end in July, giving rise to a substantial Bitcoin high In August.
Following the bank’s predictions, many cryptocurrency analysts and community members have suggested that the recent rise in Bitcoin’s price is a continuation of a strong bull market.
A cryptocurrency analyst identified as ‘CryptoYoddha’ on X (formerly Twitter) revealed that the German government was preparing to sell its remaining BTC just before the bull run. Despite the aggressive selling by the German government and the subsequent market turmoil, the analyst noted that Bitcoin still looks bullish.
About ongoing BTC liquidations
In early June, Mt Gox announced that it would make repayments to creditors in July. While the now-defunct Bitcoin exchange’s decision to begin its repayment process is good news for creditors, there is also a underlying malaise about potential Bitcoin sales.
With creditors gradually receiving part of 142,000 BTC payout from Mt Gox worth around $9 billion, market fears are somewhat justified as a widespread Bitcoin dump would have a major impact impact on cryptocurrency price. In addition to Mt Gox’s substantial Bitcoin redistribution plans, the German government was also seen selling almost 100% of their Bitcoin assets were seized from criminals.
Those substantial cryptocurrency liquidations have put a major hurdle in the price of Bitcoin, triggering severe price drops that have significantly delayed Bitcoin’s long-awaited bull run. A cryptocurrency analyst identified as ‘Rekt Capital’ indicated that Bitcoin’s bull market based on standard halving cycles has already advanced 40.1%.
BTC Bulls Push Price Above $62,000 | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com
Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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