Bitcoin
Bitcoin to hit new all-time high this year if history pans out: report
The journey to the record high in March was driven largely by approval It is launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, or ETFsin the U.S. in January. They have attracted net inflows of about $14.41 billion to date, according to CCData.
ETFs allow investors to buy a product that tracks the price of bitcoin without owning the underlying cryptocurrency. Crypto advocates say this has helped legitimize the asset class and made it easier for larger institutional investors to get involved.
Bitcoin’s “cycle” refers to the period when the digital currency hits a new high and then drops again to enter a bear market or “crypto winter”. These cycles — three of which have already completed since bitcoin’s launch — tend to follow a similar pattern.
Which has been centered around a event called halvingduring which the reward for miners is cut in half, reducing the supply of bitcoin on the market.
Typically, halvings often occur months before bitcoin hits an all-time high for the cycle. This current cycle has been different. Bitcoin surged to its last pre-halving high on the back of optimism surrounding ETFs in the U.S.
With Bitcoin trading in a range after its all-time high, many are questioning whether the cryptocurrency has reached the top of its current cycle.
The report by CCData, which examined bitcoin’s historical price movements, suggests that it could reach a new high. The data and research firm said that historical trends have shown that halving events have always preceded a period of price expansion that can last anywhere from 366 days to 548 days “before producing a cycle top, with each halving experiencing a longer cycle than the previous one due to asset class maturation and reduced volatility.”
The last Bitcoin halving occurred on April 19th this year, so these historic deadlines have not yet passed.
“Furthermore, we observed a decline in trading activity on centralized exchanges for nearly two months following the halving event in previous cycles, which appears to have mirrored this cycle. This suggests that the current cycle could expand further into 2025,” CCData said.
Analysts acknowledged that the “influence of institutional participants in the sector” in the current cycle “has altered previous trends,” adding that low trading activity is likely in the third quarter, which could in turn suggest more sideways price action.
“However, the data and past trends are strong enough to suggest that any sideways price action is temporary, and we are likely to break above previous all-time highs once again before the end of the year,” CCData said.
The company’s report said that the upcoming launch of an Ethereum ETF in the US and other similar products around the world “is designed to bring more capital, liquidity and demand to the asset class.”
CCData highlighted another important historical data point to support its thesis, saying that bitcoin price appreciation occurs over a short period of time. For example, in the 2012 cycle, 91.4% of the overall bitcoin price expansion from the halving to the all-time high happened in the four months leading up to the cycle peak. That share of the price increase was 78.8% and 71.5% in the four months leading up to the respective all-time highs of the 2016 and 2020 cycles.
“This parabolic expansion has not yet been done in the current cycle,” CCData said.
Other commentators highlighted how bitcoin’s historical patterns have developed.
“Historically, market cycles peak 12 to 18 months after the Bitcoin halving, which last occurred in April of this year. We also haven’t seen volatility reach previous all-time highs. Finally, previous market cycle peaks have coincided with a rapid succession of all-time highs — upwards of 10 to 20 new all-time highs set in a 30-day window,” Thomas Perfumo, head of strategy at cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, told CNBC in an email.
“We haven’t fired any of those signals yet,” Perfumo said.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Stocks Bleed as China’s Surprise Rate Cut Signals Panic, Treasury Yield Curve Steepens
Risk assets fell on Thursday as China’s second rate cut in a week raised concerns of instability in the world’s second-largest economy.
Bitcoin (BTC)the leading cryptocurrency by market cap, is down nearly 2% since midnight UTC to around $64,000 and ether (ETH) fell more than 5%, dragging the broader altcoin market lower. The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20), a measure of the broader cryptocurrency market, lost 4.6% in 24 hours.
In equity markets, Germany’s DAX, France’s CAC and the euro zone’s Euro Stoxx 50 all fell more than 1.5%, and futures linked to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 were down slightly after the index’s 3% drop on Wednesday, according to the data source. Investing.com.
On Thursday morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a surprise, cut outside the schedule in its one-year medium-term lending rate to 2.3% from 2.5%, injecting 200 billion yuan ($27.5 billion) of liquidity into the market. That is the biggest reduction since 2020.
The movement, together with similar reductions in other lending rates earlier this week shows the urgency among policymakers to sustain growth after their recent third plenary offered little hope of a boost. Data released earlier this month showed China’s economy expanded 4.7% in the second quarter at an annualized pace, much weaker than the 5.1% estimated and slower than the 5.3% in the first quarter.
“Equity futures are flat after yesterday’s bloody session that shook sentiment across asset classes,” Ilan Solot, senior global strategist at Marex Solutions, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “The PBoC’s decision to cut rates in a surprise move has only added to the sense of panic.” Marex Solutions, a division of global financial platform Marex, specializes in creating and distributing custom derivatives products and issuing structured products tied to cryptocurrencies.
Solot noted the continued “steepening of the US Treasury yield curve” as a threat to risk assets including cryptocurrencies, echoing CoinDesk Reports since the beginning of this month.
The yield curve steepens when the difference between longer-duration and shorter-duration bond yields widens. This month, the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury yields widened by 20 basis points to -0.12 basis points (bps), mainly due to stickier 10-year yields.
“For me, the biggest concern is the shape of the US yield curve, which continues to steepen. The 2- and 10-year curve is not only -12 bps inverted, compared to -50 bps last month. The recent moves have been led by the rise in back-end [10y] yields and lower-than-expected decline in yields,” Solot said.
That’s a sign that markets expect the Fed to cut rates but see tighter inflation and expansionary fiscal policy as growing risks, Solot said.
Bitcoin
How systematic approaches reduce investor risk
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
Low liquidity, regulatory uncertainty and speculative behavior contribute to inefficiency in crypto markets. But systematic approaches, including momentum indices, can reduce risks for investors, says Gregory Mall, head of investment solutions at AMINA Bank.
July 24, 2024, 5:30 p.m.
Updated July 24, 2024, 5:35 p.m.
(Benjamin Cheng/Unsplash)
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Bitcoin
India to Release Crypto Policy Position by September After Consultations with Stakeholders: Report
“The policy position is how one consults with relevant stakeholders, so it’s to go out in public and say here’s a discussion paper, these are the issues and then stakeholders will give their views,” said Seth, who is the Secretary for Economic Affairs. “A cross-ministerial group is currently looking at a broader policy on cryptocurrencies. We hope to release the discussion paper before September.”
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) slide as risk aversion spreads to crypto markets
Ether, the second-largest token, fueled a slide in digital assets after a stock rout spread unease across global markets.
Ether fell about 6%, the most in three weeks, and was trading at $3,188 as of 6:45 a.m. Thursday in London. Market leader Bitcoin fell about 3% to $64,260.
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